[The Editors' Verdict] The Formula for Victory in the Seoul Mayoral Election

The most critical battleground in the 9th nationwide local elections, scheduled for June 3 next year, is Seoul. The Democratic Party of Korea is desperate for a victory in Seoul, while the People Power Party cannot afford to lose this region. This is closely related to the unique characteristics of next year’s local elections. It will be the first nationwide election held exactly one year after the inauguration of the Lee Jaemyung administration. The fact that the election will take place while the new government’s momentum remains strong is an advantage for the ruling party. In fact, the Democratic Party is hoping to secure victories in Gyeonggi, Incheon, Jeju, and the Honam region’s metropolitan mayoral races. They are also aiming to reclaim the Chungcheong region.

On the other hand, the People Power Party is on high alert to defend its traditional strongholds. The party is expected to face tough battles to maintain its dominance in regions such as Busan, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang, and Gangwon. The Democratic Party also has concerns. Even if they achieve the expected results in other regions, a defeat in Seoul would significantly diminish the overall impact.

The main issue is that Seoul’s political landscape is shifting in a way that is unfavorable to the Democratic Party. Soaring real estate prices have changed the composition of Seoul’s electorate. Many people in their 30s and 40s who work in Seoul are moving their residences to nearby new towns in Gyeonggi Province. The exodus of the Democratic Party’s supportive base from Seoul is a source of anxiety for the ruling party. Seoul’s heightened sensitivity to real estate issues is another variable. Areas such as Seongdong and Mapo, once considered Democratic Party strongholds, have transformed into regions where the People Power Party now sees opportunities, thanks to rising housing prices.

Another key factor is the changing population structure in different parts of Seoul. According to Statistics Korea, Seoul’s resident registration population decreased from 9.66 million in 2020 to 9.3 million as of November this year. Interestingly, the population trends in the political strongholds of the Democratic Party and the People Power Party have diverged. The population of Gwanak District, a Democratic Party stronghold, fell from 495,000 in 2020 to 477,000 as of November this year. In contrast, Gangnam District, a People Power Party stronghold, increased from 539,000 in 2020 to 556,000 as of November this year. Even as Seoul’s overall population declines, the People Power Party’s strongholds are showing relative stability.

For both parties to defend or reclaim Seoul, they will need response strategies based on a winning formula. Historically, Seoul mayoral elections have been decided by votes in the southeastern districts. In the 2010 Seoul mayoral election, which ended with a razor-thin margin of 0.6 percentage points, the Democratic Party candidate won in 17 out of 25 districts but ultimately lost due to a significant deficit in the Gangnam area.

This time as well, if the People Power Party can maintain its stable advantage in Gangnam and Seocho and extend its momentum to Songpa and Gangdong, it is likely to retain the Seoul mayoralty. Conversely, the Democratic Party must minimize its losses in Gangnam and Seocho to have a chance at victory. The 2014 Seoul mayoral election serves as a useful model. At that time, candidate Park Wonsoon secured 45% and 47% of the vote in Gangnam and Seocho, respectively. For a Democratic Party candidate to perform well in Gangnam and Seocho, it is advantageous to avoid political moves that cater exclusively to the hardline base.

The same applies to the People Power Party. It is crucial to be perceived as a rational alternative force, rather than leaning toward far-right politics. In the 2010 Seoul mayoral election, candidate Oh Sehoon’s strong performance in Democratic Party strongholds such as Gangseo (46%) and Eunpyeong (45%) was closely linked to his moderate image.

Ultimately, the candidate with a less hardline image-one who leads the restoration of politics through dialogue and compromise-will have the best chance of winning the Seoul mayoral race. A politician who can unite fragmented public sentiment and inspire hope for Seoul’s future is fully qualified to emerge as the victor.