[SCMP Column] The Trump Era Opens a New Window for Beijing's Taiwan Strategy

Strategic Silence under "America First"
Japan Signals Willingness for Military Intervention in Taiwan
China Continues Pressure with Armed Unification in Mind

Since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, the prevailing view within China is that an unprecedented opportunity has emerged to fundamentally recalibrate both domestic and foreign strategies. At the core of this lies the perennial flashpoint in U.S.-China relations: the Taiwan issue.

As the Trump administration intensifies its "America First" policy abroad, the United States-having acted as the world's policeman for over 70 years-has been seen withdrawing from various international obligations and treaties. Furthermore, President Trump's unique transactional diplomacy is fueling the imagination within China. Notably, among some Chinese nationalists, there is even a sentiment that "now is the right time to pursue unification with Taiwan."

This backdrop is crucial to understanding the recent escalation of tensions between China and Japan, as well as the high-level contacts between the U.S. and China that have taken place around these events. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a well-known pro-U.S. figure, recently stated that "Japan could respond militarily if China invades Taiwan." Her remarks immediately provoked a strong backlash from Beijing. Experts note that the shifting dynamics expected in the coming months have the potential to reshape the geopolitics of not only the Taiwan Strait but all of East Asia.

Speculation about China's Taiwan strategy has steadily grown since President Xi Jinping took power in late 2012. President Xi has strengthened military drills in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. In particular, since President Lai Ching-te, who is considered pro-independence, took office as Taiwan's leader in 2024, these military exercises have become more frequent and larger in scale.

The United States remains the biggest obstacle facing China, as it continues to support Taiwan through steady arms sales and the Taiwan Relations Act. Since establishing official diplomatic relations with China in 1979, the U.S. has handled the Taiwan issue with deliberate strategic ambiguity. Chinese leaders have consistently advocated for the "one-China principle" and demanded that the U.S. reduce its support for Taiwan. In response, the U.S. has maintained a "one-China policy," acknowledging but not endorsing China's position, and has also kept its stance on intervention in cross-strait conflict intentionally ambiguous. Taiwan remains one of America's strongest levers to check China, making it virtually unthinkable for the U.S. to abandon this position-at least, until now.

As President Trump continues to make disparaging remarks toward Taiwan, accusing it of stealing semiconductor supremacy, hardliners in Beijing have grown bolder. For them, President Trump's worldview prioritizes bilateral bargaining over ideological confrontation and is seen as a relationship subject to adjustment based on gains and losses.

There was a notable signal in September. China’s state broadcaster aired a 39-episode drama, "Silent Honour," during prime time. The series, based on the true story of Communist Party spy Wu Si who infiltrated the Taiwanese military, subtly glorifies infiltration and subversion as a path toward unification. In October, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party included language about advancing the grand cause of national unification-a phrase that had been omitted from last year's documents, fueling speculation.

That same month, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress designated October 25 as Taiwan Restoration Day, commemorating the end of Japanese colonial rule in 1945 and Taiwan's return to Chinese sovereignty. On October 30, an even more significant signal emerged: President Xi Jinping and President Trump held their first face-to-face summit in six years at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Busan, South Korea. Both sides described the meeting as successful, and particular attention was paid to the fact that the Taiwan issue was left off the agenda.

This kind of strategic silence could signal a pragmatic, trade-first approach, or it could be a deliberate ambiguity to avoid crossing each other's red lines. One thing is clear: President Trump's focus was not on the map of the Taiwan Strait, but on exports and minerals.

President Trump's silence appears to have triggered Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks. Her suggestion that Japan might intervene militarily in a Taiwan contingency is seen as effectively breaking Japan's long-standing strategic ambiguity. China responded with harsh criticism, and reports emerged that it would reconsider its ban on Japanese seafood imports. There were even calls for Chinese tourists to refrain from traveling to Japan.

Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China and Minister of Foreign Affairs, criticized Japan at the end of last month for crossing a red line and warned against the revival of Japanese militarism. Subsequently, President Xi emphasized in a phone call with President Trump that "Taiwan's return to China is an inseparable element of the postwar international order." According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry's account of the call, President Trump said, "The United States understands the importance of the Taiwan issue to China."

However, in President Trump's own explanation of the call posted on his social media platform Truth Social, he made no mention of the Taiwan issue or China-Japan tensions. This silence is said to have caused considerable unease in both Japan and Taiwan. Afterwards, President Trump reportedly asked Prime Minister Takaichi to tone down her rhetoric regarding the situation.

This intervention by President Trump, combined with his relative silence on the Taiwan issue and China-Japan diplomatic tensions, clearly reveals his priorities. This aligns with the ongoing developments: President Trump is planning a visit to China in April next year, and there is speculation that President Xi may reciprocate with a visit to the United States.

Under these circumstances, President Xi could use the summit as leverage to induce President Trump to ease U.S. support for Taiwan. In exchange, the possibility of comprehensive economic agreement talks is being discussed. This could result in China gaining a new lever to narrow Taiwan's options and weaken the resolve of the Taiwanese people, especially as domestic political divisions deepen.

Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese strategist, wrote in "The Art of War" that "the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." Rumors about the possibility of armed unification will undoubtedly continue. President Trump has publicly stated that President Xi promised not to take military action during his term, but China does not acknowledge this. Yet, the Trump era has opened another path: gradually intensifying pressure and diplomatic isolation until Taiwan's options are exhausted.

Wang Xiangwei, SCMP columnist and former Editor-in-Chief of SCMP

This article is a translation by The Asia Business Daily of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) column Trump's world view offers Beijing a window of opportunity on Taiwan.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.