"Weakening Global Order 'G-minus'... Need for Pioneering Multilateralism"

Keynote Speech by Renowned Economist Danny Quah
Exploring Strategies for Responding to a Changing World Order
Focus on Mitigation Strategy: "Neighboring Countries Must Cooperate"

As the era of a "G-minus" world order, characterized by loosened global structures, emerges, experts advise that pursuing a leading form of multilateralism is essential to establish a practical framework for cooperation. Instead of striving to include major powers, middle-power countries should come together to seek cooperation and innovation, and actively find ways to protect their own interests.

The term "G-minus" describes a state of global order in which, rather than being polarized between the G2 (the United States and China) or forming a fully multilateral system, no single power is able to shape the order, leading to weakened cohesion. While this is not complete disorder (G-zero), where major countries play no coordinating role, it still denotes a world where cooperation and rules among key nations have weakened compared to the past.

Danny Quah, Li Ka Shing Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, is delivering the keynote speech at the conference jointly hosted by the Korea Development Institute (KDI) Graduate School of International Policy and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, held on the 17th at Lotte Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kim Pyunghwa

On the 17th, the Korea Development Institute (KDI) Graduate School of International Policy and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore jointly held a conference at Lotte Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul, under the theme "Policy Challenges and Responses for Asia Amid U.S.-China Strategic Competition and a Possible Second Trump Administration." This event was organized to review Asia's industrial competitiveness, supply chain stability, and regional cooperation strategies in the context of intensifying U.S.-China strategic rivalry, and to develop actionable policy alternatives.

Danny Quah, Li Ka Shing Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, delivered the keynote speech on "Unintentional Cooperation and Leading Multilateralism in a G-minus World." He pointed out that the global order is shifting toward a G-minus state, where its functions are more limited than in the past. In a situation where traditional multilateral systems are weakening, he emphasized the need for leading multilateralism to coordinate technological and supply chain norms and to build practical cooperation frameworks.

Professor Quah explained that, as major powers compete, third countries are forced to choose among three strategies: Align, Acquiesce, or Mitigate. The alignment strategy involves choosing either the United States or China in areas such as politics, diplomacy, military, or security. The acquiescence strategy means accepting U.S. demands in various forms, such as making concessions on tariffs and investment. According to him, countries like Korea and Japan have adopted the acquiescence strategy.

The mitigation strategy refers to adapting to the changing world order and seeking ways to alleviate challenges. Professor Quah stated, "Depending on the circumstances, a strategy that flexibly harmonizes with major powers is necessary," adding, "Leading multilateralism can be one such approach." He also stressed, "Rather than trying to include major powers, middle-power countries should come together to create models of cooperation and innovation, and develop their own structures to protect themselves in a G-minus world."

Professor Quah is a renowned economist whose research focuses on international economic relations, economic growth and development, income inequality, and social mobility. He serves on the World Bank President’s Economic Advisory Panel, the Advisory Committee of the World Bank Group’s Development Research Group, and the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council. He studied at Princeton University, the University of Minnesota, and Harvard University, and previously served as an assistant professor of economics at MIT and as a professor of economics and international development at the London School of Economics (LSE).

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