US Government Warns of Thanksgiving Airline Crisis if Shutdown Continues... Fourth Quarter Negative Growth Also Feared

Secretary Duffy Warns of Air Travel Chaos in Fox News Interview
Flight Delays and Cancellations Surge Amid Controller Shortage
NEC Chairman Hassett: "Negative Growth Possible in Q4"

The Donald Trump administration has warned that if the federal government shutdown continues, air travel in the United States will be virtually paralyzed during the Thanksgiving holiday at the end of November. The White House also projected that this could lead to negative economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year.

Sean Duffy, US Secretary of Transportation. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

Sean Duffy, US Secretary of Transportation, said in a Fox News interview on the 9th (local time), "As the Thanksgiving travel season approaches, air travel will decrease dramatically," adding, "I expect that very few air traffic controllers will be reporting to work." He emphasized, "We need to be honest about where this situation is heading," and expressed concern that "the situation will not improve, and may even get worse, until air traffic controllers receive their pay."

With the shutdown, which began on the 1st of last month, entering its second month, a nationwide air travel crisis is becoming a reality in the United States. As air traffic controllers are not being paid, many are taking leave and seeking other jobs to make ends meet, resulting in staff shortages at airports and a surge in flight delays and cancellations. In response, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has instructed all airlines to reduce flight operations by 10% until the 14th, citing the shortage of controllers.

According to aviation data firm Cirium, as of 9:30 p.m. on the 8th, 2,200 flights had been canceled in the United States. This accounts for about 7% of all flights scheduled for the day.

In an interview with CNN, Secretary Duffy also noted, "Many younger controllers earn less than $100,000 a year and are the sole breadwinners for families with one or two children, making this a very difficult situation." He added, "This problem will persist for some time even after the government reopens." He further stated that if the situation worsens, up to 20% of flights could be cut.

With the possibility growing that the air travel crisis will not be resolved before the Thanksgiving holiday, the busiest travel season in the US, the White House has even warned of the potential for negative economic growth.

Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), said in an interview with CBS, "Thanksgiving is one of the hottest times of the year for the economy," and predicted, "If people do not travel during that period, we could see negative growth in the fourth quarter." He explained, "Goldman Sachs, which has one of the best economic teams, has already estimated that GDP has decreased by 1.5%, and that figure will drop further if the shutdown continues for several more weeks, especially because of the large-scale air travel disruptions expected during the holidays."

This reflects concerns that if travel demand plummets due to reduced flights during Thanksgiving-the biggest holiday and peak season for the travel industry-consumer spending in lodging, dining, and retail sectors could also shrink.

With the US Senate failing to pass a stopgap budget bill, the shutdown reached its 40th day. This surpasses the previous record of 35 days set during the first Trump administration, from December 22, 2018. The Democratic Party is insisting on including a one-year extension of Obamacare subsidy payments in the temporary budget, but the Republican Party opposes this, leaving both parties at an impasse.