[Global Focus] Who Will Be Japan's Next Prime Minister? Takaichi and Koizumi Lead the Race

All-Out Campaign Ahead of October 4 Election
Runoff Expected; Lawmaker Votes Will Be Decisive
Both Leading Candidates Visit Yasukuni Shrine
Concerns Over Historical Disputes Remain

With the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election in Japan scheduled for October 4, the final stages of the campaign are in full swing. Following the resignation announcement of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the party is holding another leadership race just a year after the previous one, leading to fierce competition for the next seat of power in Japan. Currently, the contest is shaping up as a two-way race between Shinjiro Koizumi, the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and the second son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi, the former Minister for Economic Security, who is often referred to as the "female Abe."

Japan operates under a parliamentary cabinet system, where the leader of the majority party serves as prime minister and leads the government. Although the opposition holds a majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, the opposition parties are fragmented, making it likely that the new LDP leader will become the next prime minister.

In the LDP leadership election, each of the 295 LDP-affiliated lawmakers casts one vote, and the votes of party members (Japanese nationals who pay party dues) and party supporters (members of political organizations supporting the LDP) are counted equally as 295 votes, matching the lawmakers' total. This brings the total number of votes to 590.

If a candidate secures a majority in the first round, they win the election. If no candidate achieves a majority, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. In the runoff, the 295 votes from lawmakers are combined with votes from 47 local party organizations. In the event of a runoff, the votes of lawmakers become the decisive factor in determining the winner.

Candidates attending the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election debate held in Tokyo, Japan, on the 24th. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News

Koizumi Leads Among Lawmakers, Takaichi Among Party Members

This election is a contest between Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Koizumi, known in Korea as "Punkoolsekjwa," and former Minister for Economic Security Takaichi, referred to as the "female Abe." If Koizumi is elected, he will become the youngest LDP leader and the youngest postwar prime minister. If Takaichi is elected, she will become both the first female LDP leader and Japan's first female prime minister. In last year's leadership election, Takaichi finished second, while Koizumi came in third.

Takaichi, now 64 years old, is a hardline right-wing politician. She continues the political line of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, including constitutional revision and "Abenomics." Notably, she is a female, non-hereditary politician from an ordinary middle-class background in a party dominated by male hereditary politicians. After graduating from university and attending the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, she was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1993.

However, she has long visited Yasukuni Shrine, where Class-A war criminals from the Pacific War are enshrined, and has declared that she will continue to do so even if she becomes prime minister. This makes diplomatic friction with neighboring countries such as South Korea and China inevitable if she takes office.

In contrast, Koizumi, at 44 years old, is a male hereditary politician. He entered politics as his father's secretary in 2007, inherited his father's constituency in 2009, and has been considered a potential future prime minister from early on. While he is seen as youthful and fresh-faced, concerns remain about his lack of experience. He is relatively reform-minded but, like Takaichi, has visited Yasukuni Shrine annually.

In 2019, as Minister of the Environment, he made the controversial remark that issues like climate change should be addressed in a "fun, cool, and sexy" way, which became a meme in Korea as "Punkoolsekjwa."

Other candidates include Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi (64), former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi (50), and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi (69).

Currently, Koizumi leads among lawmakers, while Takaichi is ahead among party members. According to the Sankei Shimbun on September 28, about 30% of the 295 lawmakers have pledged to support Koizumi. Hayashi, considered a "dark horse," has about 20% support, while Takaichi is estimated to have a little over 10%.

A survey by Jiji Press, conducted up to September 25 among LDP lawmakers, found that between 60 and 70 out of 295 supported Koizumi, while fewer than 40 backed Takaichi. Hayashi had support from about 50 lawmakers, similar to the Sankei Shimbun's findings.

Meanwhile, a Nihon TV (Nippon TV) survey of 1,108 LDP party members and supporters on September 23-24 showed that 34% supported Takaichi, followed by Koizumi at 28% and Hayashi at 17%.

Based on these trends, the Sankei Shimbun predicts that the leadership election will likely go to a runoff, as no candidate is expected to secure a majority in the first round. In last September's election, Takaichi led the first round but failed to secure a majority, resulting in a runoff against then-Prime Minister Ishiba, who finished second.

"A Foreigner Kicked a Deer"... Japan Shifting Further to the Right

Regardless of which candidate wins, there are expectations that the LDP will shift further to the right. Unlike Prime Minister Ishiba, who has a relatively moderate view of history, both leading candidates-Takaichi and Koizumi-have a record of visiting Yasukuni Shrine every year.

Additionally, the rise of the far-right Sanseito party in the House of Councillors election in July, campaigning under the slogan "Japanese First," has had an impact. Some analysts say that conservative LDP supporters have shifted their votes to Sanseito, raising concerns within the party.

Indeed, the candidates' pledges appear to reflect an awareness of Sanseito's popularity, particularly regarding foreigner-related policies. While such issues were not major campaign topics in last year's election, this time candidates are actively proposing policies on foreign crime and immigration restrictions.

This has led to remarks inciting anti-foreigner sentiment. On September 23, Takaichi claimed during a policy speech that a foreign tourist had kicked a deer, a symbol of Nara Prefecture, sparking controversy. When asked for evidence during a debate hosted by the Japan National Press Club the next day, she replied that she had "verified it in her own way." However, according to Nara Prefecture authorities, there have been no confirmed cases of foreign tourists attacking deer.

Meanwhile, Koizumi, who actively promoted the introduction of the progressive "optional separate surname system for married couples" during last year's leadership race, has refrained from mentioning it this year, seemingly in consideration of conservative voters.

Relations with South Korea... Implementation of US Trade Negotiations Remain a Challenge

So far, the candidates' comments on Japan-South Korea relations have generally followed the trajectory of the Ishiba administration. Both Koizumi and the far-right Takaichi have emphasized the importance of cooperation with key allies such as South Korea, the United States, and the Philippines.

However, concerns over historical disputes are expected to deepen. Both leading candidates, when asked about their intentions to visit Yasukuni Shrine, gave ambiguous answers such as "I will make an appropriate judgment," apparently mindful of relations with neighboring countries and centrist voters. However, it is unlikely that this ambiguity will continue after the election. Some LDP lawmakers are reportedly concerned that if Takaichi is elected, her visits to Yasukuni Shrine could lead to diplomatic conflicts with South Korea and China.

On September 27, Takaichi attended the "Takeshima Day" event in Shimane Prefecture and argued that the government representative should be upgraded to a minister, insisting that Takeshima (the Japanese name for Dokdo, which Japan claims as its territory) is Japanese territory.

Meanwhile, the next Japanese prime minister faces the task of implementing a $550 billion investment agreement with the United States. With President Donald Trump considering a visit to Japan at the end of October for the first time in six years, issues such as Japanese corporate trade investment and increased defense spending are expected to be on the agenda.

On September 28, Takaichi mentioned the possibility of renegotiating with the United States during a debate, signaling potential repercussions if she is elected. She stated, "If any unfair elements arise in the process that harm the national interest, we must address them clearly." In contrast, Koizumi said, "I do not believe this agreement is particularly unfair," while other candidates took a cautious stance. The US Congressional Research Service (CRS) recently reported that Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation announcement could affect the implementation of the trade agreement.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.