[Stock of the Week] After "Vampire" Success, Major New Releases Line Up... Netmarble Heats Up

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The stock price of Netmarble is soaring as its new game "Vampire," developed by the core team behind Lineage 2 Revolution, has achieved massive initial success. After its official release on August 26, the game recorded initial daily sales in the 3 billion won range, and has maintained the No. 1 spot in sales on both Google Play Store and Apple App Store into September, fueling expectations of a third-quarter earnings surprise. Notably, some in the securities industry are calling for a reassessment of Netmarble’s publishing capabilities, given that the company has achieved hits with three out of four new releases this year-a 75% success rate. In the second half of the year alone, Netmarble is set to launch a total of seven new titles, including its most anticipated release, "The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin."

Vampire’s Success Drives Stock Surge... 52-Week High During Monday Trading

On Monday, September 8, Netmarble’s stock closed at 64,400 won per share, up 5.92% from the previous session. During the day, it reached as high as 65,000 won per share, setting a new 52-week high. This marks an increase of over 15% compared to a month ago. Netmarble’s market capitalization has surpassed 5.5 trillion won.

The main driver behind Netmarble’s recent stock rally is undoubtedly "Vampire," a new MMORPG with a vampire theme. The game is available on both mobile and PC platforms, with initial daily sales estimated at around 3 billion won and currently maintaining around 2 billion won per day. Choi Seungho, a researcher at DS Investment & Securities, commented, "Vampire closely follows the established Lineage-like formula and has demonstrated Netmarble’s strong publishing capabilities through influencer promotions, resulting in consecutive hits." This has been directly reflected in the market’s response. From August, ahead of Vampire’s launch, through early September, both domestic and foreign investors have been actively buying shares.

Mirae Asset Securities has raised its third-quarter daily average revenue estimate for Vampire from 500 million won to 1.5 billion won, and increased its third-quarter operating profit forecast by 21% to 85 billion won. Lim Heeseok, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, stated, "Since the market consensus for third-quarter daily average revenue was only about 1 billion won, the likelihood of an earnings surprise has grown." Accordingly, Mirae Asset Securities raised its target price for Netmarble from 85,000 won to 90,000 won, maintaining it as a top pick in the sector. DS Investment & Securities also maintained its top pick status and a "buy" recommendation. BNK Investment & Securities commented, "With heightened success potential and acquisition of new IPs, Netmarble has achieved two goals at once," and set a new target price of 75,000 won with a "buy" recommendation.

The expectation for an earnings surprise at Netmarble is not solely due to Vampire. Lim Heeseok noted, "In the fourth quarter, we anticipate another earnings surprise driven by strong global sales of Seven Knights Rebirth. The performance in global markets, where the game is set to launch on September 18, is expected to sustain second-quarter-level sales for Seven Knights." With consecutive hits, back-to-back earnings surprises are expected for the third and fourth quarters. According to Mirae Asset Securities, fourth-quarter operating profit, reflecting global sales of Seven Knights Rebirth, is projected at 128 billion won, exceeding consensus by 20%. Lee Jongwon, a researcher at BNK Investment & Securities, also noted, "New releases in the first half have delivered solid results, leading to continued improvement in performance." Choi Seungho emphasized that Netmarble’s hit success rate this year has reached 75%.

More New Releases Ahead... Securities Analysts Say "No Downtime, Confident in Consecutive Hits"

The fact that more major Netmarble releases are lined up is also fueling market expectations. Starting with Vampire, a total of seven new titles-including "Stone Age," "The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin," and "MonGil: Star Dive"-are scheduled for release this year. Lim Heeseok highlighted, "There will be strong momentum from new releases in the fourth quarter."

Choi Seungho predicted, "We expect back-to-back hits from the most anticipated second-half releases, MonGil: Star Dive and The Seven Deadly Sins: Origin. While MMORPG hits can impact earnings per share (EPS), hits from MonGil and The Seven Deadly Sins will simultaneously affect both EPS and multiples." Both titles will be showcased at the Tokyo Game Show 2025, which opens on the 25th. Lee Jongwon commented, "With existing releases and major new launches in the second half, there is no downtime, which is reassuring. The proprietary payment system for the second-half lineup also offers potential for further profitability. If multiplatform IPs become hits, valuation expansion and stock price rerating are expected."

Given these circumstances, some analysts believe the current stock price is actually undervalued. Choi Seungho suggested, "Despite consecutive strong performances and hit games, Netmarble’s value has remained undervalued because the product life cycles (PLC) of its new games have not been long." He stressed, "It’s time to reassess Netmarble’s publishing capabilities, beyond just game quality."

Lim Heeseok remarked on the current stock price, "There is no reason not to buy at this level," adding, "Valuation is especially attractive, with the projected price-to-earnings ratio (PER) at just 13 times for 2025 and 14 times for 2026." Furthermore, with the new game lineup for next year set to be announced around November, there is a high possibility that the 2026 earnings forecasts for Netmarble will be revised upward by analysts. Lim explained, "Since the 2026 new releases have not yet been announced, the current 2026 earnings forecast is conservative," and expects upward revisions after the lineup-expected to include five new titles-is revealed.

In terms of fundamentals, the burden of impairment losses on intangible assets related to the amortization of goodwill from the SpinX acquisition has been resolved, and marketing expenses are being managed at less than 20% of total sales. Based on this, Netmarble achieved an operating profit margin (OPM) of 14.1% in the second quarter. Lee Jongwon noted, "With reduced burdens and a steady stream of new releases, Netmarble’s fundamentals are being highlighted." He added, "While existing titles are receiving frequent updates, the success of major IPs in the second half will be the key variable determining the company’s corporate value and stock price rerating."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.