Gyeongnam University Far East Issue Research Institute Holds the 75th Unification Strategy Forum

Under the Theme of "Assessment of North Korean Situation in 2024 and Outlook for 2025"

The Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Gyeongnam National University held the "75th Unification Strategy Forum" on the 4th at Jeongsan Hall under the theme "Assessment of North Korean Situation in 2024 and Outlook for 2025," featuring presentations and discussions on five subtopics.

The 75th Unification Strategy Forum.

The first session, "North Korean Politics: Assessment of 2024 and Outlook for 2025," was conducted with a keynote presentation by Kwak Gil-seop, CEO of One Korea Center, and a discussion by Jeong Jun-hee, research fellow at Sejong University's Institute for National Governance.

CEO Kwak noted that North Korea currently needs to prepare for major events such as the 80th anniversary of the party's founding and the 9th Party Congress, and that policy shifts could begin in earnest once a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war becomes imminent. He forecasted that North Korea's 2025 strategies and tactics would include ▲ full establishment of the 'Hostile Two-State Theory,' ▲ expansion of dispatch achievements in the Russia-Ukraine war, and ▲ probing actions toward the United States.

Research fellow Jeong analyzed that in 2024, Chairman Kim Jong-un focused on organizing the political legacy inherited from his predecessors and attempted to normalize North Korea as a recognized ordinary state internationally, while simultaneously strengthening his own power, demonstrating a dual approach. He further projected that in 2025, amid increasing instability due to policy shifts, the mobilization system would be reinforced to achieve performance targets across various sectors.

The second session, "Changes and Prospects of North Korea's Hostile Policy toward South Korea," featured a keynote presentation by Professor Jeong Young-cheol of Sogang University and a discussion by Professor Kim Sang-beom of Gyeongnam National University's Institute of Far Eastern Studies.

Professor Jeong predicted that, given both Koreas must manage their internal political schedules, "improvements in inter-Korean relations due to the emergence of a new regime in South Korea, as some expect, will not be easy."

He also expressed the view that "unification plans or policies that prominently emphasize unification no longer hold public persuasiveness and seem to have lost their effectiveness."

Professor Jeong argued that South Korea needs to cultivate a culture, values, and discourse centered on 'peace,' and that the government should seriously explore new political and military approaches that directly address the root causes of the Korean Peninsula issue, beyond existing approaches to North Korea.

Professor Kim evaluated that North Korea has continuously worked to establish legal and normative grounds in the international community to classify South Korea as a hostile state capable of being attacked in military conflicts, while creating an environment favorable to its national interests through strengthening defense capabilities and forming military alliances. He analyzed that North Korea might avoid dialogue due to South Korea's political instability and emphasized the necessity for South Korea to rapidly restore political stability and prioritize crisis management capabilities to prevent war.

The third session, "North Korea's Foreign Policy: Launch of Trump's Second Term and Prospects for North Korea's U.S. Strategy," included a keynote presentation by Kim Sang-gi, research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, and a discussion by Noh Kyu-deok, visiting professor at Halla University and former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Korean Peninsula Peace Negotiation Division.

Research fellow Kim stated that although North Korea maintains a hardline stance toward the U.S. and a policy of strengthening nuclear capabilities, President Trump has consistently sent progressive messages toward North Korea and strongly expressed willingness to resume dialogue with Chairman Kim Jong-un, making the resumption of North Korea-U.S. talks, negotiations, and summits in 2025 quite possible.

Professor Noh analyzed that "both the U.S. and North Korea are already considering negotiations while keeping each other in check," and assessed that compared to the 2019 Hanoi Summit, North Korea is not at a disadvantage in the competition for negotiation leadership.

The fourth session, "North Korea's Foreign Policy: Continuity and Prospects of North Korea-Russia Relations," featured a keynote presentation by Doo Jin-ho, research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, and a discussion by Professor Ahn Kyung-mo of the Korea National Defense University.

Research fellow Doo projected that since North Korea and Russia share many perceptions and interests, the North Korea-Russia relationship is likely to develop solidly as long as the Putin-Kim Jong-un framework is maintained.

In response, Professor Ahn analyzed that "the core of North Korea's foreign strategy is to sustain and develop the strengthened North Korea-China alliance while dramatically enhancing relations with Russia to create a virtuous cycle structure of the North Korea-China-Russia triangular alliance."

Lee Kwan-se, director of the Unification Strategy Forum, explained, "2025 is an important year for North Korea as it marks the final year of North Korea's five-year economic development plan and the preparation year for the 9th Party Congress, the third party congress since Kim Jong-un's leadership," and evaluated that "amid increased uncertainty in the Korean Peninsula situation due to the launch of the second Trump administration, this forum provided an opportunity to build consensus on the need for a sober understanding of the situation and appropriate responses."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.