[The Editors' Verdict]The Presidential Election Ultimately Hinges on the Battle for the Center

The keyword that runs through Yeouido's political scene in February is the early presidential election. The Constitutional Court's time is also running out. Although it is difficult to predict the court's decision, the election clock for both ruling and opposition parties is already ticking. In fact, some have already thrown their hats into the ring. Lee Jun-seok, a member of the Reform New Party, has taken the lead as the first penguin, seizing the election issue.

Looking back at the election timetable, it is hard to say that this action is premature. In 2017, the Constitutional Court ruled to uphold the impeachment on March 10, and the presidential election was held on May 9. At that time, the Democratic Party of Korea began recruiting a national electorate for the early presidential election from February 15. Both ruling and opposition parties conducted their internal candidate selection processes and finalized their candidates by the end of March.

The official campaign period for the presidential election is longer than other elections. While the general election campaign period is 14 days, the presidential election lasts 23 days. According to the Public Official Election Act, candidate registration takes place over two days starting 24 days before the election day. This is why both parties have always completed candidate selection at least one month before the election. If the so-called Cherry Blossom Election or Rose Election becomes a reality, there is not much time left. Now is the time to draw up the election blueprint and prepare vote-winning strategies.

The starting point of the election blueprint is the strategy to secure 16 million votes. In the 2022 presidential election, Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, received 16.39 million votes, setting the record for the highest number of votes ever received by a presidential candidate. Lee Jae-myung, who received 16.14 million votes, is the politician with the most votes in the history of the Democratic Party's presidential candidates. If an early presidential election is held and a candidate surpasses 16 million votes again, that candidate is likely to win.

After meeting with President Yoon Suk-yeol, the vehicle carrying Kwon Young-se, the Emergency Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, Kwon Seong-dong, the floor leader, and Na Kyung-won, a member of the National Assembly, is leaving Seoul Detention Center in Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do on the 3rd. Photo by Yonhap News

This can be understood by looking at past presidential election results. In the 2017 election, where President Moon Jae-in won comfortably, the winning candidate received 13.42 million votes. The 2007 election, known as a landslide victory for President Lee Myung-bak, saw the winner receive about 11.49 million votes. Until 2022, no presidential candidate from either party had ever surpassed 16 million votes. Both parties dream of 'again 16 million votes,' but their situations differ. The People Power Party produced a candidate who received 16.39 million votes, but the main figure, President Yoon Seok-yeol, will not run in this election. The Democratic Party may have Lee Jae-myung, who received 16.14 million votes, run again.

Both ruling and opposition parties need to gather all possible votes, including those they have and those they do not, to reach 16 million votes in the presidential election. This requires a flexible and strategic approach that attracts not only centrists but also supporters of competing parties. Lee Jae-myung's continuation of pro-business messages despite controversy over his rightward shift is not unrelated to his election strategy.

What must be absolutely avoided in the presidential election is politics that only looks at the hardcore supporters. While this may be useful for rallying the base during party primaries, the general election is a different story. The presidential election is ultimately a battle for the center. It is the centrist voters, not the extremes of progressives or conservatives, who decide the winner. This is why political experts pay close attention to the trends among centrist voters in presidential election polls.

The visit by People Power Party emergency committee chairman Kwon Young-se and floor leader Kwon Seong-dong to Seoul Detention Center to meet President Yoon is worth reconsidering. As a result, the ruling party leadership became messengers of President Yoon's prison politics. If an early presidential election is held, whether they like it or not, the keyword 'rebellion' will inevitably become an issue. Should the top two leaders of the ruling party invite the image of harboring rebellion? Have they considered how this will be perceived by centrist voters?

It is questionable how many will sympathize with the ruling party leadership's explanation that the visit was a personal matter.