[Trump Again] "After Imposing Universal Tariffs, Exceptions Will Likely Be Recognized One by One"

The 'universal tariff' of the second Trump administration is an imminent reality. Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, has expressed his intention to use tariffs as a major weapon against the entire world without distinguishing between enemies and allies. South Korea is no exception. The Korean government also believes it will be unable to avoid the U.S. universal tariff policy and is closely monitoring the situation, focusing its efforts on being recognized as an exception country before the full implementation.

On the 20th, a government official said, "Considering President-elect Trump's tendencies, it seems that tariffs will be imposed on all countries and all products from the start without any exclusions," adding, "Afterwards, there is a high possibility that exceptions will be granted one by one based on the cards presented to be recognized as an exception country or product. The Korean government must devise a strategy accordingly."

In this way, it is expected that the U.S. will employ a strategy of maximizing benefits through negotiations with each country regarding the universal tariff. This repeats the pattern from Trump's first term, where maximum pressure was applied using various weapons, followed by negotiations favoring the U.S. Ultimately, South Korea must prepare countermeasures in a 'bilateral framework' rather than a 'multilateral framework.'

Professor Kang In-su of Sookmyung Women's University stated, "The principle of universal tariffs is to impose them without discrimination on all products of all countries, but it is difficult to operate this way in reality," and predicted, "The U.S. is likely to grant exceptions by country and product through individual negotiations to obtain what they can."

The full-scale implementation of the universal tariff is expected to occur no later than the second half of this year. Professor Kang advised, "South Korea cannot avoid the universal tariff that President-elect Trump has pledged, and the key issue is the timing of the tariff increase," adding, "We must assume that the U.S. will begin imposing universal tariffs starting in July, the beginning of the second half of this year at the latest, and prepare countermeasures in advance."

It is practically impossible for the Korean government to prepare specific countermeasures immediately. This is because it is unclear how President-elect Trump's universal tariff will be announced in detail. A government official said, "Even the personnel of the second Trump administration do not know how the universal tariff will be implemented," and added, "Currently, the second Trump administration personnel are waiting for President-elect Trump's decision rather than negotiating with other countries."

However, it is necessary to prepare countermeasures based on various scenarios. The tariff bomb from President-elect Trump poses a significant uncertainty, coupled with the slowdown in Korean exports. According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the export forecast for this year is $694 billion, which is only a 1.5% increase compared to the previous year. This is a significant slowdown compared to last year's growth rate of 8.2%. The tariff bomb from Trump could further drag down the already sluggish economic growth rate. The Korean economy has already entered a structural low-growth phase in the 1% range due to export peak-out caused by the deterioration of competitiveness in key industries such as semiconductors and domestic demand contraction leading to economic recession.

Experts particularly point out that the contraction of global trade caused by the tariff war could lead to a typical economic downturn path, including decreased Korean exports, worsened corporate performance, reduced investment, decreased employment, reduced real income, and contracted consumption. Kim Jun-hyung, a research fellow at the Korea Development Institute (KDI), said, "The psychological contraction of economic agents, such as companies stopping investments and households reducing consumption, is already evident," and emphasized, "It is urgent to prepare countermeasures to prevent the export slowdown from spreading to the real economy."

The Korean government has also begun preparing effective policy measures and negotiation strategies. On the 6th, under the chairmanship of Acting President and Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Strategy and Finance Choi Sang-mok, the first 'External Economic Issues Meeting' was held to initiate inter-ministerial discussions related to the launch of the second Trump administration. The 'Ministerial Meeting for Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness,' previously centered on ministries, has been expanded and reorganized into a public-private joint meeting body involving six economic organizations and private experts, holding weekly meetings. Additionally, an inter-ministerial first-level meeting body involving the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also in operation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.