Democrats vs Republicans... US Presidential Election and Congressional Control Race Also 'Neck and Neck'

Simultaneous Presidential and Congressional Elections on the 5th
Senate Likely Republican... House Outcome Unpredictable
Future Political Impact Tied to Presidential Results

On the 5th (local time), when the U.S. presidential election is held, elections for both the Senate and the House of Representatives are also taking place nationwide. Just like the presidential race, the congressional elections are extremely close and unpredictable. It is uncertain who will become president between Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump, and which party will control the Senate and the House. Depending on the election results, there is a high possibility that the future political landscape in the U.S. will be significantly shaken.

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

The U.S. Congress is composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Currently, the Democrats hold the majority in the Senate, while the Republicans hold the majority in the House. The Senate has a total of 100 seats, with two senators allocated per each of the 50 states. Senators serve six-year terms, and the Senate is not entirely replaced at once but is renewed by one-third every two years. Accordingly, 34 seats are up for election this year. Of these, 23 seats are held by Democrats and 11 by Republicans.

The House of Representatives has 435 seats, all of which are up for election every two years. Currently, Republicans hold 220 seats, Democrats 212 seats, and the remaining 3 seats (2 previously Democratic, 1 Republican) are vacant due to the death or resignation of incumbents. For the Democrats to gain the majority in the House, they need to maintain their current seats and gain an additional 4 seats.

In the Senate, if the Republicans maintain their current status and gain just 2 more seats in this election, they can achieve majority status. Foreign media predict a change in the majority party in the Senate. This is because in states like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, former President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are high, and Republican candidates are narrowly leading in polls.

The Democrats are seeking a turnaround in these states while focusing all efforts on defending their existing congressional seats in key presidential battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Bloomberg News stated, "The Democrats’ optimal scenario is to have a 50-50 split in the Senate and then win the presidency, becoming the majority party through the Vice President’s casting vote," but also predicted, "If Republicans win in the closely contested areas, they could secure up to 55 seats."

[Image source=Getty Images Yonhap News]

The House is truly unpredictable. The British magazine The Economist conducted 100 simulated elections and found that Democrats won the majority 55 times, while Republicans won 45 times. On the other hand, political media outlet The Hill predicted a 53% chance that Republicans will hold the majority. The Washington Post (WP) reported that when eight columnists were asked which party they expect to control the House, six predicted Democrats and two predicted Republicans.

As the fierce battle for Congress unfolds, there is great interest in the results. The future political situation could change dramatically depending on who controls Congress in conjunction with the presidential election results. If former President Trump succeeds in returning to the White House and Republicans control both the Senate and the House, the policies pursued by the Joe Biden administration and the Democrats could be overturned instantly. If the party controlling the White House and Congress differ, political conflicts are expected to be inevitable.

AP News evaluated, "Depending on the election results, the new administration will decide whether to meet allies, face skeptics, or confront a divided situation similar to the most chaotic and unproductive recent session in modern history." Bloomberg noted, "Controlling Congress is key to determining economic policy," and predicted battles over legislation related to the extension of Trump’s tax cuts expiring next year, as well as regulations on cryptocurrencies, energy, artificial intelligence (AI), and social networking services (SNS).

Meanwhile, several Korean-American politicians are running in this year’s Senate and House elections. Andy Kim, a Korean-American and a member of the House of Representatives from New Jersey (Democrat), who is the first Korean-American to run for the Senate, is considered likely to win. Korean-American Representatives Young Kim (California, Republican), Michelle Park Steel (California, Republican), and Marilyn Strickland (Washington, Democrat) are also running for their third terms in the House.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.