Global Investment Bank Lowers China's Economic Growth Forecast Below 5%

Global investment banks have consecutively downgraded China's economic growth forecast for this year to below 5%.

Bank of America. [Photo by Yonhap News]

According to Bloomberg News on the 4th (local time), the major U.S. bank Bank of America (BoA) lowered its forecast for China's economic growth rate this year from 5% to 4.8%.

BoA explained the reason for lowering the forecast, stating, "China's fiscal and monetary policies have not been as effective as expected, making them insufficient to boost domestic demand."

BoA also downgraded its economic growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026 from 4.7% to 4.5%, adding, "Due to a lack of policy support from Chinese authorities, China's economic growth rate is likely to remain below the target (5%) over the next two years."

China's economic growth rate for this year was relatively high at 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, but it fell to 4.7% in the second quarter, raising concerns about meeting the target of around 5% growth.

Earlier, major global banks such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and UBS also downgraded their forecasts for China's economic growth rate this year to below 5%. Goldman Sachs lowered its GDP growth forecast from 5.0% to 4.9% immediately after the announcement of China's second-quarter GDP.

According to Bloomberg News, JP Morgan's forecast for China's economic growth rate is 4.6%, and Nomura Holdings' forecast is 4.5%. The Swiss global investment bank UBS also lowered its forecast for China's economic growth rate this year from 4.9% to 4.6% last week, citing the real estate downturn as the reason.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.