[Global Focus] Harris Secures 'Magic Number' "Will Catch Trump"... What Is the Secret Weapon?

Securing Majority of Delegates Makes Him a Leading 'Post-Biden' Candidate
Strengths Include Regaining Black Voter Support and Prosecutorial Background
Ambiguous China Policy and Illegal Immigration Response Remain Challenges

The dynamic of the November U.S. presidential election, once seen as a rematch between former and current presidents, is rapidly reshaping. President Joe Biden, unable to ultimately overcome the risks associated with his advanced age, has withdrawn from the race, paving the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to step in as the Democratic Party's savior. Vice President Harris secured the 'magic number' of delegates needed for the nomination in just one day, proving herself as the undisputed 'post-Biden' figure. The question now is whether she possesses the competitiveness to overturn the prevailing 'Trump momentum.' Although she stands in stark contrast to former President Donald Trump in terms of gender, race, age, and background, there are criticisms that she might simply continue Biden’s policy direction. Attention is focused on how clearly Vice President Harris will present her vision on key issues such as immigration and China policy, which are major topics in this election.

Harris Secures ‘Magic Number’... "I Am the Real Post-Biden"

With President Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the presidential race, Democratic loyalists are quickly rallying around Vice President Harris, who has taken up the baton. According to an AP tally on the 22nd (local time), Vice President Harris secured the support of 2,668 Democratic delegates in just one day, and as of the 26th, she has secured 3,359 delegates. This far exceeds the magic number (simple majority) of 1,976 delegates required for the nomination.

The loyal base is also returning. Democratic leaders including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have all declared their support for Vice President Harris. Even major Democratic donors who had previously stopped political contributions are gradually returning. Harris’s campaign announced that within 24 hours of announcing her presidential bid, they raised $81 million (112.5 billion KRW) from 888,000 donors. Although the exact amounts from high-value donors were not disclosed, supporters such as LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and Wall Street billionaire George Soros have joined the ranks.

Poll results are also remarkable. Immediately after President Biden’s withdrawal announcement, a Morning Consult poll showed Vice President Harris trailing former President Trump by just 2 percentage points, with 45% support to Trump’s 47%. In a recent head-to-head poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos on the 22nd and 23rd, surveying 1,018 voters, Harris recorded 44% support, surpassing Trump’s 42% by 2 percentage points (margin of error ±3%). The New York Times (NYT) evaluated, "Just two days after Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed her, Harris has gained nearly unanimous support within the Democratic Party as the November challenger to Trump."

Harris’s Strengths and the Boomerang of ‘Age Risk’

The matchup between Vice President Harris and former President Trump presents a stark contrast in inherent backgrounds such as gender (female vs. male), race (Black and Asian vs. White), and generation (Trump 78 years old, Harris 59 years old). Notably, Harris is 59 years old. The age and health risks that undermined President Biden have now become a boomerang, shifting to Trump, who is only three years older. According to a recent WP-ABC News-Ipsos poll conducted ahead of the Republican National Convention, 60% of Americans believe former President Trump is too old to serve another presidential term.

Vice President Harris’s bid to become the first female president of the United States, as well as her identity as an Asian-American and Black woman, is seen as effective in regaining the support of Black voters who had become disillusioned with Biden’s immigration policies. According to a recent CNN-SSRS poll, Harris leads Trump among Black voters by 78% to 15%. This gap has widened compared to Biden’s lead over Trump in April and June polls (70% to 23%). Alarmed by this, Republican leaders including House Speaker Mike Johnson have reportedly urged their members and party supporters to avoid mentioning Harris’s race and gender and instead focus on criticizing her achievements.

Beyond these inherent factors, Harris’s background as a former California Attorney General and prosecutor could be a weapon to threaten former President Trump. Harris chose Milwaukee, the site of the Republican National Convention, as her first campaign stop, emphasizing, "As a prosecutor, I dealt with all kinds of criminals," and "I know the type like Donald Trump well." She effectively framed the newly reshaped election as a "prosecutor versus criminal" showdown. Former President Trump, who is currently facing four criminal trials, was found guilty on 34 counts in the May trial related to hush money payments for a sexual misconduct scandal.

The Issue Is Policy... Can She Escape Biden’s Shadow?

The key question is how much Harris can differentiate her policy stance from the weaknesses revealed in Biden’s administration. Since Harris has long been part of the Biden administration, there is widespread assessment that her presidency would be a continuation of Biden’s policies. In response, Harris has taken a confrontational stance by promising to "stop Trump’s extreme abortion ban," and she recently boycotted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the U.S. Congress during his visit to the U.S. This move is interpreted as an effort to distance herself from Biden’s Middle East policy, which, due to its pro-Israel stance, has alienated core Democratic supporters.

Illegal immigration, considered the Biden administration’s biggest vulnerability, is also expected to continue to haunt Vice President Harris. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), illegal border crossings, which numbered 400,000 in 2020, surged more than fourfold to 1.65 million in 2021 after Biden took office. In December last year, the monthly figure reached a record high of approximately 300,000 illegal entries. As the second-highest-ranking official in the administration, Harris cannot easily avoid responsibility. Exploiting this, former President Trump harshly criticized her during a rally in North Carolina on the 24th, saying, "If Harris continues to be the border czar, every week bloodthirsty rapists will be chasing our children."

Lacking an independent China policy is another challenge Harris must address. During her tenure, Harris has neither visited China nor engaged in significant exchanges with key Chinese officials, leading experts to believe she will follow Biden’s China policy. A senior researcher at China’s Taihe Institute, Ainer Tangen, pointed out, "In terms of China policy, Harris has shown no policy vision as vice president." However, Professor Xian Dingli of Shanghai Fudan University noted, "It is uncertain how Harris’s foreign policy will change, but she may propose tougher policies than Trump to increase her chances in the fierce election campaign." Former President Trump recently threatened in a Bloomberg interview to impose punitive tariffs of 60-100% on Chinese imports.

"Even If Harris Wins, Impact Will Be Limited... She Must Appeal Personally to Have a Chance"

Wall Street is weighing the market impact of the 'Trump momentum' and Harris’s emergence. Experts including Isaac Boltansky, head of policy research at investment bank BTIG, explain that "even if Harris becomes president, she will be a continuation of the Biden administration," and the market has already priced in Biden’s withdrawal and the emergence of Trump 2.0. There is also a growing consensus that even if a Democrat wins the presidency by overturning Trump’s momentum, the market impact will be limited.

The Washington Post (WP), classified as a left-leaning media outlet, stated, "Harris will likely want to minimize risks by refraining from making many statements until her official nomination next month, but she actually needs to voice her opinions on various policies and political issues to have a chance." The paper urged her to draw a clear line from Biden’s populist policies, such as broad student loan forgiveness, rent relief, and middle-class tax cuts, which have fueled inflation and fiscal deficits.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.