"North Korea Overconfident in Russia's Protection... Possible 7th Nuclear Test in Second Half of the Year"

Jung Sung-yoon, Director of the Institute for Unification, Analyzes Second Half Outlook
"Aiming for Military Conflict Including NLL Neutralization"
"Efforts to Pressure Russia and North Korea Through International Cooperation"

As North Korea and Russia engage in overt military cooperation, there is a prospect that North Korea, overconfident in Russia's backing, may conduct its '7th nuclear test' in the second half of this year. Given that the Kim Jong-un regime could leverage Russia to pursue negotiations with the U.S. aiming for 'recognition as a nuclear power' depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November, it is analyzed that diplomatic preparedness by our government is crucial.

On the 12th, Jeong Seong-yoon, head of the Unification Policy Research Office at the Korea Institute for National Unification, stated in the report titled "Assessment of the Korean Peninsula Situation in the First Half of 2024 and Outlook for the Second Half" that "The situation on the Korean Peninsula in the first half of this year can be described as 'North Korea's response and Russia's return,'" and evaluated it as "a strategic move comparable to North Korea's simultaneous shift in the early 1990s to a conciliatory policy toward the South and a 'nuclear development' security strategy."

A large banner with a photo and the phrase "Welcome Comrade Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation" is hung on a building near Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang in June, ahead of the state visit of Vladimir Putin, President of Russia. [Image source=TASS Yonhap News]

Jeong said, "As a result of evaluating the domestic and international situation from 2022 to 2023, North Korea likely judged that regime survival would be difficult without a revolutionary and offensive strategic shift," and analyzed, "The most probable reason North Korea chose a bold strategy toward the South and abroad is the deteriorating environment for regime maintenance and its lack of capability to overcome it." He then listed North Korea's 'five hardships' as ▲failure to independently secure advanced nuclear technology ▲loss of leadership in inter-Korean relations ▲strengthening of South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation ▲continued sanctions against North Korea ▲and influx of external information.

He analyzed that North Korea brought Russia into the Korean Peninsula through a new Russia-North Korea treaty to overcome this predicament but cautioned, "It is an overestimation and premature to assert that North Korea's strengthened military cooperation with Russia completely neglects or betrays China." Given that North Korea's trade dependence on China still exceeds 90%, and Russia's economy is being depleted by war, Russia is insufficient as an alternative for North Korea. He also anticipated that China might cooperate with the U.S. and South Korea to make North Korea uncomfortable and that North Korea would be wary of this possibility.

Jeong predicted, "In the second half of the year, North Korea will not be cautious about provocations toward the South," explaining, "This is because North Korea is likely to overestimate the necessity of coercion against the South, overconfident in Russia's protection." He added, "In particular, it is highly likely that North Korea will attempt to deny the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea through constitutional amendments under Kim Jong-un's directive soon," and forecasted, "Since North Korea will definitely look for opportunities to provoke in border areas and islands in the West Sea in the second half, the possibility of military clashes between the South and North will be considerably high."

He especially emphasized, "Attention should be paid to the possibility that North Korea may forcibly carry out the 7th nuclear test," warning, "North Korea will want to make it known that its strategic shift toward the South is not mere rhetoric but that it has secured the capability to conquer South Korean territory." Furthermore, he predicted that North Korea might try to increase its presence during the U.S. presidential election period and demonstrate its willingness to directly address its security issues without considering China's stance.

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea

Jeong called for a strategy to frustrate North Korea's expectations for managing security on the Korean Peninsula, recommending four strategies: ▲establishing an offensive policy toward North Korea ▲actively conducting diplomacy with the international community ▲maintaining the principle of 'peace through strength' ▲and proactively responding to future challenges.

He suggested that, as President Yoon Suk-yeol strengthened cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., Japan, and global partners through the recent NATO summit, bold international cooperation should be leveraged to worsen the Russia-North Korea cooperative environment. Above all, since it is difficult to rule out the possibility that North Korea will engage in negotiations with the U.S. to gain recognition as a nuclear power depending on the U.S. presidential election results, it is analyzed that, as a preventive measure, South Korea should actively share and consult with key U.S. figures and influential congressional groups about South Korea's concerns, North Korea's intentions, and South Korea-U.S. cooperation issues.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.