"East Asia Population Decline... Weakening of Chinese Military Power Benefits the US"

Population in China to Decrease by 8% from 2020 to 2050, US to Increase by 12%
Weakening Military Strength of Allies like Korea and Japan is a Concern
US Needs to Maintain Alliances Despite Increased Defense Cost Burden

As the all-out competition between the United States and China intensifies, an analysis has emerged suggesting that the dramatic demographic changes East Asia will undergo in the future could serve as a strategic advantage for the United States.

Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economy expert at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a conservative think tank in the U.S., wrote in Foreign Affairs on the 8th (local time) that "East Asia will face rapid aging and population loss," and "considering the impact of these phenomena on China in particular, it seems likely to be a geopolitical gain for the United States."

Eberstadt stated, "The foundation of national power is manpower," and predicted that "as East Asian countries experience population decline, they will face difficulties in economic development and investment, wealth accumulation, operation of social safety nets, and military troop mobilization." He especially noted that "the decline will be pronounced among the military service-eligible population," pointing out that "this is a factor that weakens the United States' main competitors."

He cited low birth rates as the cause of population decline. Eberstadt emphasized, "Japan already saw its total fertility rate fall below the replacement level in the 1970s, South Korea and Taiwan in the 1980s, and China in the 1990s." The replacement fertility rate refers to the total fertility rate needed to maintain a country's population assuming no changes in migration and mortality rates. For developed countries, this is roughly considered to be 2.1 children per woman.

The population decline forecast for East Asia is also confirmed by data from major international organizations. According to the United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division projections, from 2020 to 2050, the populations of China and Japan are expected to decrease by 8% and 18%, respectively. During the same period, South Korea's population is predicted to decline by 12%, and Taiwan's by about 8%. In contrast, the U.S. population is projected to increase by 12%.

Eberstadt paid particular attention to the contraction of China's military power. He noted, "In 1990, the number of military service-age males in China was nearly seven times that of the United States, but by 2050, it will shrink to 2.5 times," diagnosing that "China will increasingly struggle with how to utilize the increasingly scarce 18 to 23-year-old population." The analysis highlights a dilemma: if young people enlist in the military, they do not contribute to the economy, but if they enter the labor market, it becomes difficult to maintain a trained military force.

However, Eberstadt assessed that "since Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan?who have traditionally provided significant support to the U.S.?are also experiencing population decline, East Asia's demographic decrease will not be a complete victory for the United States." In South Korea's case, the military service-age population once accounted for as much as 25% of that of the U.S., enabling support for U.S. defense plans on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia, but by 2050, this population will fall to less than 10% of the U.S. level, putting a brake on U.S. military strategy as well.

Eberstadt argued, "As Japan and South Korea find it harder to contribute to the U.S. security alliance due to population decline, the U.S. burden may increase," adding, "The attractiveness of these two countries as U.S. defense allies will gradually diminish, and the U.S. will face internal pressure to reduce its investment in East Asian security." However, he warned, "If the U.S. reduces its security support to these countries, bilateral relations will deteriorate, collective security will weaken, and only China will benefit," urging that "the U.S. must not succumb to the temptation to shirk its defense responsibilities."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.