'Low Birthrate' in Japan, Extinction in 700 Years?..."Only 1 Person Under 15"

Advanced by 1,427 Years After 12 Years Since Research Began

A study has revealed that in Japan, where low birth rates and population decline are serious issues, the population under 15 years old will be reduced to just one person in about 700 years.

Recently, Yomiuri Shimbun and others reported that Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor of geriatric economics at Tohoku University and director of the Center for Elderly Social Research, predicted this through the 2024 edition of the "Child Population Clock."

The Child Population Clock is calculated annually based on national population estimate data and is posted on the research institute's website around Children's Day. Professor Yoshida developed it in 2012, inspired by the U.S. "Doomsday Clock," to raise awareness of the crisis caused by low birth rates.

According to estimates by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as of April 1, the number of children under 15 in Japan was 14.01 million. This represents a decrease of 336,000 (2.3%) compared to the previous year. Based on this figure, Professor Yoshida estimated that the number of children as of Children's Day on May 5 was 13,979,189.

Elementary school students in Japan [Image source=Pixabay]

If the population continues to decline at this rate, Professor Yoshida explains that on January 5, 2720, about 696 years later, there will be only one child under 15 years old. This is effectively a step toward "extinction." Of course, since this research assumes the continuation of families, the likelihood of this happening is slim, but it indicates how serious the low birth rate problem is.

When this research was first conducted in 2012, the year when only one child under 15 would remain was projected to be 4147, and last year's estimate was 2821. Due to the worsening low birth rate, the expected year when only one child under 15 remains has been brought forward by 1,427 years in just 12 years. Professor Yoshida explained the reason as "an increasing number of young people not marrying or having children due to the ongoing recession."

Japan's total fertility rate last year (the expected number of children a woman will have in her lifetime) was 1.26, higher than Korea's but below the minimum level required to maintain the population (2.07).

The proportion of children in the total population fell to 11.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous year, marking the lowest level since 1950. However, this is still higher than Korea's proportion of population under 15 years old (10.6%).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.