Increased Possibility of Re-vote on Cha Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Law... Examining Party Vote Consolidation

Itaewon Special Act, 89 out of 113 People Power Party Members Participate
Opposition Also Shows Interest in Uniting Reform New Party, Saeroun Mirae, and Independents

As the Presidential Office hinted at exercising the right to request reconsideration (veto) regarding the Chae Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Act, a re-vote is expected in the plenary session around May 27-28. The outcome of the re-vote may vary depending on the cohesion of both the ruling and opposition parties.

Currently, excluding independent lawmaker Yoon Kwan-seok who is in custody, there are 295 seated members. Among them, the ruling coalition holds 115 seats (People Power Party 113 seats, Liberty Unification Party 1 seat, Independents 1 seat), and the opposition coalition holds 180 seats (Democratic Party 155 seats, Justice Party 6 seats, New Future Party 5 seats, Reform New Party 4 seats, Progressive Party 1 seat, New Progressive Union 1 seat, Patriotic Innovation Party 1 seat, Independents 7 seats). Political circles expect that if all 295 members participate in the reconsideration vote, the bill will pass if 17 votes defect from the ruling party.

According to a comprehensive analysis by this outlet on May 2 of the voting results for the Itaewon Special Act and the Chae Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Act, the voting outcome could become even more precarious depending on attendance by both ruling and opposition members.

In the case of the Itaewon Special Act, which was processed through bipartisan agreement, 260 members participated in the vote. Notably, only 89 members of the People Power Party participated in the vote, with 24 members, including those who lost their seats, abstaining. The Democratic Party had 149 members participate. Considering only the cohesion of the ruling and opposition coalitions, only 90 members (including independent lawmaker Ha Young-je) gathered for the ruling coalition. If the Chae Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Act proceeds with this seat distribution, there would be only about a 3-seat margin above the 87 seats needed to block reconsideration. However, Kim Woong, a People Power Party lawmaker who voted in favor of the Chae Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Act in the open vote, is expected to vote in favor again in the secret ballot. Since the re-vote will be conducted by secret ballot, vote control will be difficult, making rebel votes a critical factor.

The cohesion of the opposition coalition is also a variable. In the case of the Chae Sang-byeong Special Prosecutor Act, it passed with 168 votes while People Power Party members, except for Kim who voted in favor, left the chamber. The Democratic Party had 151 members participate, along with 6 from the Justice Party, 1 from the Progressive Party, 1 from the New Progressive Union, and 1 from the Patriotic Innovation Party. However, among the Reform New Party’s 4 members, only 1 participated; among the New Future Party’s 5 members, only 3 participated; and among the 7 opposition independents, only 3 participated. The votes of the Reform New Party, New Future Party, and independent opposition lawmakers are thus crucial and missed.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.