[Polpol News] Is the 'Joguk Innovation Party' Emerging as a Substitute Rather Than Just a Complement to the Democratic Party?

Proportional Party Support Rate Hits 21.0%
Democratic Party Supporters Increasingly Back Joguk Innovation Party
Joguk States "Goal for General Election is 10 Seats"

The ‘Joguk Innovation Party,’ founded on the 3rd, is closely trailing the satellite party of the Democratic Party of Korea in the proportional representation vote share. Depending on the results of this general election, the Joguk Innovation Party is expected to emerge not just as a complement but as a substitute for the Democratic Party.

According to a public opinion poll released on the 4th by Media Tomato (commissioned by News Tomato, conducted over two days from the 2nd to the 3rd, targeting 1,016 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over, using 100% randomly selected wireless phones with an automated response method), 21.0% of respondents said they would vote for the Joguk New Party (the choice in the poll, referring to the Joguk Innovation Party) as their proportional representation candidate. Although this is lower than the People Power Party’s proportional party, People’s Future, which had a support rate of 39.4%, it closely follows the proportional coalition party involving the Democratic Party (the choice in the poll, referring to the Democratic United Party) at 25.1%, within the margin of error. Considering that the Joguk New Party had only 8.9% support in the survey conducted in the fourth week of February (on the 17th and 18th of last month), it has shown rapid growth in just two weeks.

Support Trends in Honam Also Noteworthy

In economics, the terms substitutes and complements are used. Substitutes are different goods that provide the same utility, while complements are two products used together to gain utility. At the beginning of the year, the Joguk Innovation Party was expected to occupy a position similar to the Open Democratic Party, which was launched alongside the Democratic Party’s satellite party, the Together Citizens’ Party, in the last general election. In that election, the Open Democratic Party secured 5.4% of the vote, winning three proportional representation seats.

On the 5th, Jo Guk, leader of the Jo Guk Innovation Party, is greeting Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, at the National Assembly. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

However, as the Democratic Party recently experienced nomination controversies and other turmoil, support weakened, increasing public interest in the Joguk Innovation Party. As a result, the proportion of voters who vote for the Democratic Party in constituency elections but choose the Joguk Innovation Party in proportional representation has significantly increased. In the fourth week of February, this rate was 20.3%, but in the current survey, it nearly doubled to 39.4%.

Changes in public sentiment were also prominent in the Honam region. Among voters in Honam, 27.6% said they would support the Joguk Innovation Party in proportional representation. The Democratic Party, which had previously garnered votes in Honam during presidential and general elections, received 34.9% support. If this trend continues, the Joguk Innovation Party is expected to perform considerably well in proportional seats in Honam as well.

The change in the status of the Joguk Innovation Party is partly due to the ‘newly opened business’ effect, but largely because supporters who have become skeptical of the Democratic Party amid nomination controversies and other turmoil have identified the Joguk Innovation Party as a kind of alternative.

From ‘No Alliance’ to ‘Let’s Work Together’: Changing Relations

Park Hong-geun, former head of the ‘Democratic Reform Progressive Election Coalition Promotion Team,’ which established the model for the Democratic United Party, stated on social media on the 13th of last month, at the party’s launch, "In this critical historic election, former Minister Cho’s political participation or independent party formation will not help the people’s victory but will only generate unnecessary controversy, conflict, and persistent attacks." He added, "Even if a new party is formed, it is difficult to consider it as a target for an electoral coalition to win this general election." However, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, told Cho during a courtesy visit to the party office, "All political forces aiming to judge the Yoon Seok-yeol administration in this general election must unite," adding, "Among them is the Joguk Innovation Party."

Earlier, Cho said in his greeting, "Will the people who come out to vote for the Joguk Innovation Party give their other vote (for constituencies) to the People Power Party?" He also stated, "If the Joguk Innovation Party and the Democratic Party cooperate and unite, we can cross the river of Yoon Seok-yeol’s strong prosecutorial dictatorship in the April general election." This indicated that those voting for the Joguk Innovation Party in proportional representation would ultimately support the Democratic Party in constituencies.

What Will the Future Relationship Between the Two Parties Be?

For now, Cho has expressed that the Joguk Innovation Party intends to act as a kind of assault unit for the Democratic Party. He said, "Even if the Democratic Party has the will, it is cautious, but we will boldly carry out the campaign," indicating his intention to lead progressive agendas proactively. However, he has repeatedly stated that there will be no merger. In media interviews, Cho said, "After entering the National Assembly, we will not merge with the Democratic Party to pass progressive reform bills." While mentioning the need to respond to the agenda adjustment committee, he also did not hide his intention to maintain a healthy tension with the Democratic Party over progressive agendas.

What about the future? In an interview with BBS Buddhist Broadcasting System, when asked if they could be an alternative to the Democratic Party, Cho replied, "Given our current strength, how could we be an alternative?" and cautiously added, "Our goal in this general election is 10 seats."

For detailed information such as the survey overview, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.