North Korea's Potential Provocations Around Gwangmyeongseong Day (16th) [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Military Provocation Launched on This Date in the Past
Attention Drawn to Emphasis on New 240mm Rocket Projectile Development

There is an analysis that North Korea is highly likely to resume military provocations this week. North Korea will mark the birthday of Kim Jong-il, the National Defense Commission Chairman, known as the ‘Day of the Shining Star (Gwangmyeongseongjeol),’ on the 16th. Considering that military provocations have historically occurred around this date, the possibility of large-scale provocations is also being raised.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 8th, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, made threatening remarks toward South Korea on the occasion of the ‘Founding Day of the Korean People's Army (Kangunjeol).’ On that day, during a congratulatory visit to the Ministry of Defense with his daughter Ju-ae, Kim sharply criticized the South Korean government, calling it "the most harmful primary hostile state, the immutable main enemy." However, there was no military provocation. This contrasts with last year’s Founding Day, when a large-scale military parade was held at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang. During that parade, the solid-fuel propelled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) ‘Hwasong-18’ was unveiled for the first time, showcasing military power.

North Korea, which had been quiet, is highly likely to provoke in line with the Day of the Shining Star. In the past, provocations have been carried out around this date. Nuclear tests have also been conducted. On February 12, 2013, the third nuclear test was conducted. Then, on February 7, 2016, the long-range rocket ‘Kwangmyongsong-4’ was launched. The following year, on February 12, the ‘Pukguksong-2’ medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) was fired. Last year, provocations also occurred. On February 18, a Hwasong-15 ICBM was launched from Pyongyang toward the East Sea, and two KN-25 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) were fired toward the East Sea two days later on the 20th, which North Korea claimed was a "simulated tactical nuclear warhead test."

Another noteworthy point is the recent emphasis on the development of a new 240mm rocket artillery projectile. North Korea’s 240mm rocket artillery refers to multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) with a range of 54 to 65 kilometers. On the 12th, the Korean Central News Agency reported, "The National Defense Science Institute conducted a ballistic control firing test of the 240mm guided rocket artillery projectile the day before, evaluated its accuracy, and verified its superiority," adding that "it will qualitatively change rocket artillery capabilities." The new 240mm rocket artillery with guidance functions has improved precision and is as effective as missiles.

The range of North Korea’s new 240mm rocket artillery is similar to the distance from North Korea’s frontline units to Seoul (about 50 kilometers). It is considered a major weapon aimed at South Korean territory. North Korea has deployed about 5,500 rocket artillery units of various calibers, including 122mm, 300mm, and 600mm, allowing for mixed firing. From the 5th to the 7th of last month, over 300 rounds of rocket artillery and field artillery were fired in the northern area of the northwestern islands, and 600mm-class super-large rocket artillery was also deployed.

If North Korea begins provocations around the Day of the Shining Star, they could continue throughout this month. This is because there is a high possibility of backlash ahead of next month’s South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise ‘Freedom Shield (FS).’ The exercise will be conducted for 11 days from the 4th to the 14th of next month, including multiple outdoor field maneuvers. The FS joint exercise plans to conduct division-level combined amphibious training and about 20 South Korea-U.S. joint outdoor maneuver exercises at the level of the past ‘Foal Eagle (FE)’ exercises.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, “Since North Korea has continued large-scale provocations such as nuclear tests on the occasion of the leader’s birthday, it is highly likely that they will conduct test launches of strategic weapons around Kim Jong-il’s birthday.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.