"US, 1% of Imports from China by 2030"... Biden or Trump, China Is the Loser Regardless

Trump Predicts 60% Tariffs on Chinese Goods
BE: "US Share of Chinese Imports Currently 14% → 1% in 6 Years"
'Tech Blockade' Biden Also Expected to Increase Pressure on China

With a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump likely in the upcoming U.S. presidential election this November, forecasts suggest that whichever side wins, China will be the "Only Sure Loser." It is expected that former President Trump will continue with ultra-high tariffs, while President Biden will maintain a blockade against China in advanced technology, pressuring China as it seeks a breakthrough from economic recession.

On the 12th (local time), Bloomberg analyzed that the two current and former presidents could competitively maintain a tough stance on China-related policies.

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, former President Trump, who leads in approval ratings, has promised over 60% ultra-high "tariff bombs" on China if he returns to the White House. Bloomberg Economics (BE), Bloomberg's economic research institute, estimated that if tariffs on China rise to 60%, the share of Chinese products in total U.S. imports would plummet from 14% in 2023 to 1% by 2030. The annual U.S.-China trade volume of $575 billion (approximately 766 trillion KRW) would shrink completely. If tariffs remain at the current average rate of 12%, the share of Chinese imports is expected to decrease to 10% by 2030. Considering that during the Trump administration in 2018, before the U.S.-China trade war, the share of Chinese imports reached as high as 22%, a rapid U.S.-China decoupling is anticipated. Although China is seeking detours by relocating production bases to Mexico and Vietnam to "launder" the origin, a disruption in U.S.-China trade appears unavoidable.

President Biden, who emphasizes "de-risking" rather than U.S.-China decoupling, is also expected to maintain a tough stance on China and increase the level of blockade. The Biden administration is in the final stages of introducing regulations to restrict U.S. capital investment in China. Measures to curb the leakage of sensitive personal information to China are also expected to be announced as early as this week. In response to concerns over data collection by Chinese-made smart cars, including electric vehicles, the Biden administration is considering limiting imports of Chinese electric vehicle parts regardless of the final assembly location of the vehicles. Bloomberg noted, "Former President Trump's political rhetoric could pressure President Biden, ahead of the election, to take harsher measures against China," diagnosing that this is bad news for the Chinese economy and the Chinese stock market, which has fallen more than 40% from its 2021 peak.

Among trade experts, there is considerable analysis that the Biden administration's China policy stance is tougher than that of the previous Trump administration. Although President Biden has not pulled out the tariff increase card like former President Trump, he has designated China as a strategic competitor and has been restructuring global supply chains to isolate China in advanced technology sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing. The U.S. has partnered with allies such as the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea to ban exports of semiconductor equipment and advanced semiconductors to China, and through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), it has effectively excluded Chinese products from the electric vehicle supply chain.

Professor Shang Baichuan of the University of International Business and Economics in China said, "Both are a big threat," diagnosing that "Former President Trump's America First policy could create new opportunities in the U.S. and other regions contrary to the Chinese economy, while President Biden is trying to exclude China from the technology supply chain." He added, "Either way, the Chinese government will face a U.S. president with a strategy to exclude and suppress China's development."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.