9 out of 10 Koreans Say "North Korea Denuclearization is Impossible"

Choi Jonghyun Academy Survey of 1,043 People
"Independent Nuclear Development Needed" 72.8%

A public opinion survey revealed that 9 out of 10 South Koreans believe that North Korea's denuclearization is impossible.

On the 5th, the Choi Jong-hyun Academy (hereinafter referred to as the 'Academy') announced the results of the second public opinion survey on 'The North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Security Situation Perceptions' at the Lotte Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul. This survey was conducted from December 15 last year to January 10 this year by the Academy commissioning Gallup Korea, targeting 1,043 men and women aged 18 and older through one-on-one interviews. As a result, the majority of respondents, 91.1%, expressed the perception that North Korea's denuclearization is not possible. This figure increased by 13.5 percentage points compared to 77.6% in the same survey last year.

North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the Nampo Shipyard to inspect the status of warship construction, according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on the 2nd.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

Looking more closely at the responses, when asked, "North Korea legalized a preemptive nuclear strike last year, and Chairman Kim Jong-un declared the non-abandonment of nuclear weapons by revising the socialist constitution this year. In this situation, do you think North Korea's denuclearization is possible?" 41.4% answered "Not at all possible," and 49.7% answered "Not possible."

When asked whether they expect North Korea to possess enough nuclear weapons to respond to the United States even after a U.S. nuclear attack, 57.7% of respondents answered "No."

The Academy also asked whether respondents believe that the United States would exercise nuclear deterrence in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula, given North Korea's development of missile technologies such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) capable of attacking the U.S. mainland. In response, 60.8% answered "No," which was higher than the 39.3% who answered "Yes."

Last year, those who responded positively that the U.S. would exercise nuclear deterrence in a Korean Peninsula crisis (51.3%) slightly outnumbered those who responded negatively (48.7%), but this year the situation has reversed. The Academy explained this change as likely due to the advancement of North Korea's nuclear weapons development and its increasingly aggressive provocations, rather than a decline in South Koreans' trust in the United States.

North Korea conducted a strategic cruise missile "Hwasal-2" launch drill in the West Sea of Korea on the 30th of last month, according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on the 31st of last month.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

Regarding the necessity of South Korea's independent nuclear development, 72.8% of respondents answered "Necessary." Although this is a slight decrease from 76.6% last year, many South Koreans still support independent nuclear development. The Academy interpreted this as related to strengthened security cooperation through the Washington Declaration and the U.S.-Japan-South Korea summit at Camp David. However, when asked whether the North Korean nuclear threat would be resolved through the U.S.-Japan-South Korea security cooperation at the Camp David summit last August, 63.4% responded negatively, saying "No."

Additionally, 63.7% of respondents believed that if former President Donald Trump were to win re-election in the U.S. presidential election this November, he would not actively address the North Korean nuclear issue, surpassing the majority. Furthermore, 78.2% said that under a Trump re-election, pressure for increased defense cost-sharing for U.S. forces in South Korea and potential withdrawal of U.S. troops could be reignited. The proportion of respondents who believed that China has no genuine willingness to contribute to North Korea's denuclearization was also overwhelming at 81.1%.

The margin of error for this survey is ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.