"North Korea May Conduct Deadly Military Action Within Months... Likely to Exceed Yeonpyeongdo Level" NYT

There are growing concerns among current and former U.S. officials that North Korea may undertake military actions against South Korea that surpass the past Yeonpyeong Island shelling.

On the 25th, citizens at the Seoul Station waiting room watched the news reporting that North Korea conducted the first test launch of the new strategic cruise missile 'Bulhwasal-3-31' through the Korean Central News Agency. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 25th (local time), citing multiple officials, that "North Korea, having shifted to a hostile policy line toward the South, is likely to carry out lethal military actions against South Korea within the next few months."

According to the NYT, these officials emphasized the need to take seriously the increasingly aggressive tone of North Korean National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un's recent statements. While a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula is not imminent, there is a warning that North Korea could carry out strikes similar to the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island shelling as a way to avoid rapid escalation of tensions.

John Feiner, Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Council (NSC), diagnosed at a forum held by the U.S. think tank Asia Society that day, regarding North Korea's recent military provocations and movements, that "North Korea has chosen to continue very negative actions." Daniel Russel, Vice President of Asia Society and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, also said, "Kim Jong-un appears to intend to carry out attacks that surpass the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island shelling," adding, "We must prepare for the possibility that Kim Jong-un will take shocking physical actions."

The background for such assessments among current and former U.S. officials includes North Korea's recent successive military demonstrations and unprecedented hostile remarks toward South Korea. In his address to the Supreme People's Assembly on the 15th, Kim Jong-un announced the removal of expressions such as 'independence, peaceful reunification, and great national unity' from North Korea's constitution and stated that education should reflect the view of South Korea as the "thoroughly primary hostile country" and "unchanging main enemy." Prior to this, at the Workers' Party plenary meeting on December 30 last year, he also stated that "Inter-Korean relations are no longer relations between compatriots or homogeneous relations but have completely solidified into hostile relations between two states and two warring parties."

Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, pointed out that Kim Jong-un has effectively abandoned decades-long policies aimed at normalizing North Korea-U.S. relations. He said, "I am surprised myself to see how worryingly the situation is changing," and predicted, "North Korea will prefer surprise attacks similar to those in 1950."

The NYT assessed that the Biden administration engaged in talks with China as part of efforts to persuade North Korea, but there are limits to China's influence over North Korea. Furthermore, Kim Jong-un's moves to build closer ties with Russia could weaken this influence even more. Wang Huiyao, head of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges based in Beijing, described the overall situation as "very dangerous" and said, "All relevant parties need to engage in dialogue together."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.