"6% Growth" Economic Confidence in Major Chinese Cities... Western Countries Doubt Statistics

China Achieved 5.2% Growth Last Year, Meeting Target
Bloomberg: Actual Growth Rate Around 1.5%

China recorded an economic growth rate of 5.2% last year, while major economic cities set this year's growth targets at around 6%. Meanwhile, Western media expressed skepticism about the statistics released by China, estimating that the actual growth rate could be around 1.5%.

According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 19th, Ningbo in Zhejiang Province, eastern China, recently set this year's economic growth target at about 6% during the annual session of the People's Congress. Hefei in Anhui Province, a city known as "China's Detroit" for its automotive research, also announced a 6% growth target for this year. The city hosts research centers for Volkswagen, Nio, and BYD. Changzhou in Jiangsu Province, home to a subsidiary of the world's largest battery manufacturer CATL, also declared it would grow by more than 6%. Additionally, Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu Province, and Guangzhou, the capital of southern Guangdong Province, set economic growth targets of over 5%.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

SCMP added, "After the world's second-largest economy recorded a 5.2% growth last year, meeting its target (around 5.0%), major economic cities are showing a determination to accelerate growth this year."

The Chinese government's official economic growth target is expected to be announced in early March by Premier Li Chang during the government work report at the National People's Congress. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released a relatively positive forecast the day before, projecting China's GDP to grow by 5.3% this year. Major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, UBS, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan have estimated China's economic growth this year to be between 4.2% and 4.9%.

While the dominant view within China is that last year's GDP growth was "steady," external observers remain skeptical. On the 18th (local time), Bloomberg quoted Logan Wright, director at Rhodium Group, saying, "Overall investment in China last year was largely stagnant, which means the GDP growth rate is 'significantly overstated,'" and added, "The actual figure is likely around 1.5%." Bloomberg also pointed out, "China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a 3% nominal increase in fixed asset investment (FAI) last year, but the total investment amount (50.3 trillion yuan, approximately 931.053 trillion won) cannot be compared to the previous year's figure due to issues found during the investigation."

It continued, "Skepticism about China's GDP data tends to spread during economic slowdowns," emphasizing, "When the economic growth rate reached 3% in 2022 despite extensive lockdowns, doubts about the data peaked." It also claimed, "According to a paper to be published in China Economic Review based on nighttime light data, GDP growth actually declined by 3.9% that year due to zero-COVID controls." Furthermore, "Pandem Consulting estimated a 0.9% growth in 2022 and a 7.2% growth last year due to base effects," it explained. However, Juan Ots, a Chinese economist at Pandem Consulting, added, "These base effects have now ended, and this year's estimate is a 'normal' figure around 4%."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.