[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Two Months Since North Korea's Satellite Launch... The 'Silent Satellite'

Technical Verification Practically Impossible Even Two Months After Launch
Filming Technology May Also Be Introduced Through Russia

The performance of North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite 'Manlilyeong-1' has not been verified. Although it has been nearly two months since its launch, North Korea has not released any satellite images, making future technical verification appear difficult.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Last November, North Korea claimed that Manlilyeong-1 had captured images of the U.S. White House and Department of Defense, U.S. military bases in Guam and Hawaii, as well as South Korean locations including Jinhae, Busan, Ulsan, Pohang, Daegu, and Gangneung, boasting the reconnaissance satellite's capabilities. If North Korea's claims are true, it implies that communication with the ground control station and image transmission were successfully conducted. Accordingly, South Korean and U.S. military authorities also assess that Manlilyeong-1 successfully settled into its orbital path.

However, experts believe that verifying a military satellite will take time. The South Korean and U.S. sides are focusing on the photos that the military satellite might have taken. To verify whether Manlilyeong-1 functions effectively as a reconnaissance satellite, it is necessary to view the images captured by the satellite.

Even if North Korea successfully captures images, it is unlikely to release them due to concerns about exposing its technological level. North Korea has previously launched satellites into orbit twice?in December 2012 with Kwangmyongsong-3 Unit 2 and in February 2016 with Kwangmyongsong-4?but none were confirmed to be fully operational. The military analyzed debris recovered from North Korea's first launch last May and concluded that the camera resolution on the reconnaissance satellite at that time was only about 3 meters. This means objects measuring 3 meters by 3 meters would appear as a single point.

The United States also appears unable to conduct an accurate analysis. On the 17th (local time), John Plumb, U.S. Department of Defense Deputy Assistant Secretary for Space Policy, stated during a space policy briefing regarding North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite launch, "We are seriously assessing (North Korea's) war capabilities." The threats posed by North Korea's reconnaissance satellite that both South Korea and the U.S. are monitoring include ▲tracking major strategic assets around the Korean Peninsula and ▲surveillance of U.S. strategic assets at bases such as those in Japan and Guam.

At the end of last year, North Korea declared at the Workers' Party Central Committee plenary meeting that it would launch three additional reconnaissance satellites this year. Especially following the collapse of the September 19 military agreement and the increase in North Korean provocations and military tensions, the presence of reconnaissance satellites conducting missions over the Korean Peninsula is growing.

There is also a strong possibility that North Korea will collaborate with Russia to bolster its insufficient military satellite technology. On the 19th, documents carried by a member of Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui’s delegation during a visit to Russia were exposed externally. Although the Kremlin did not disclose the details of the meeting, the delegation member was seen holding a document labeled 'List of Observers in the Field of Space Technology.' It is presumed that discussions on cooperation regarding reconnaissance satellites took place. Additionally, Jo Chun-ryong, head of the Workers' Party Military Industry Department responsible for North Korea's conventional artillery production, attended meetings with President Putin and the North Korea-Russia foreign ministers, lending weight to the possibility that the two countries discussed military cooperation, including arms transactions.

Pranay Badhy, Senior Director at the U.S. White House National Security Council (NSC), also stated on the 18th (local time) during a discussion hosted by the Washington D.C.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that he is closely monitoring the potential significant expansion of North Korea's military threat due to cooperation with Russia. Badhy explained that although the South Korea-U.S. leaders agreed last year in the Washington Declaration to strengthen extended deterrence, cooperation between North Korea and Russia could be a major variable. He added, "I believe that as a result of this cooperation, the nature of North Korea as a threat in this region could dramatically change over the next 10 years."

In response, South Korea and the U.S. have emphasized that satellite launches using North Korea's ballistic missile technology clearly violate United Nations Security Council resolutions and have strengthened deterrence and response capabilities in the region. In particular, if additional signs emerge of Russia transferring nuclear and missile technology to North Korea, South Korea, the U.S., and Japan are reportedly advancing plans to actively cooperate in pressuring Russia, including through military support to Ukraine, which had previously been restrained.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.