"Main Enemy, Punishment, War"... Why Has Kim Jong-un Become More Aggressive?

Seeking Opportunities Amid Global Security Uncertainty: North Korea Appears to Strengthen Position and Negotiation Power Ahead of US Election
Experts Divided on War Possibility

North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un is speaking at the Supreme People's Assembly policy speech held in Pyongyang on the 15th. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, stated that the constitution should explicitly designate the Republic of Korea as the "primary hostile country and immutable main enemy." Following a series of recent military provocations, his rhetoric toward South Korea has become increasingly harsh. Analysts suggest that North Korea is leveraging global security gaps created by the wars in Ukraine and Palestine, as well as the unstable cross-strait relations (China-Taiwan), to raise the possibility of war and strengthen its negotiating power.

According to the Korean Central News Agency on the 16th, during his policy speech at the Supreme People's Assembly held in Pyongyang the previous day, Chairman Kim said, "It is appropriate to explicitly state in the relevant constitutional clause that the Republic of Korea is thoroughly regarded as the primary hostile country and immutable main enemy, and to strengthen educational and ideological work accordingly." He added, "Expressions such as 'northern half of the Korean Peninsula,' 'independence, peaceful reunification, and great national unity' currently in the constitution should now be deleted."

In response, President Yoon Suk-yeol warned at a Cabinet meeting held at the presidential office in Yongsan, Seoul, on the same day, saying, "The North Korean regime has admitted that it is an anti-national and anti-historical group," and "If North Korea provokes, we will retaliate several times over."

North Korea Becomes More Aggressive... Exploiting Gaps to Enhance Negotiating Power

Since officially defining inter-Korean relations as "hostile relations between two states" at the year-end plenary meeting last year, Chairman Kim has continuously escalated his rhetoric. He does not hesitate to use terms implying actual armed conflict, such as "main enemy," "war," "punishment," and "annihilation." This is interpreted as a demonstration of his resolve that the possibility of war is not mere bluff, as he completely severs relations with South Korea and significantly raises military threat levels. Analysts believe that behind Chairman Kim's harsh remarks lies the intention to increase negotiating power by exploiting global security uncertainties.

It is also analyzed that the United States' attention being divided among the Israel-Hamas war, the Houthi rebels, and cross-strait relations has had an impact. Professor Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University's Department of North Korean Studies stated, "North Korea will gradually increase the intensity of provocations until the U.S. presidential election in November."

Kim Jong-un Has No Room to Back Down... Possibility of 'Misjudgment'

There is also an analysis that Chairman Kim has no room to retreat and will have to confront with a "strong against strong" stance. Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and an authority on North Korean issues, recently wrote in a '38 North' article, "Those who are convinced there are no better options may attempt the most dangerous game." Consequently, the possibility of actual war is also being discussed. If a military clash between China and Taiwan occurs and U.S. forces intervene, North Korea might misjudge that there is a security gap on the Korean Peninsula.

However, experts still believe that it is unlikely for North Korea to start a war. The immediate possibility of China invading Taiwan or a security gap emerging in U.S. forces stationed in South Korea is slim. Professor Kang Jun-young of the Graduate School of International and Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies explained, "Since maintaining a stable relationship with the United States is a key task for China, it will prevent North Korea's excessive provocations," and added, "It is also unlikely that cross-strait relations will deteriorate further."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.