[3P Threatening the Korean Economy] 'Again Trump' Emerging in the Global Domino Election Scene

③Politics 40% of the World's Population, to the Polling Stations

As the new year 2024 dawns, the topic that has emerged not only in South Korea but globally is undoubtedly ‘elections.’ Starting with the upcoming Taiwan presidential election, approximately 76 countries worldwide will hold various elections that will affect the lives of over 4.2 billion people.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Particularly, global attention is focused on the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November. With two wars?the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war?emerging as pressing international issues, the geopolitical landscape worldwide is expected to be significantly shaken once again if a new administration takes office in the United States.

◆40% of the World’s Population to Vote... ‘The Year of Global Super Elections’

[Image source=TASS Yonhap News]

On the 1st (local time), the British economic weekly The Economist identified ‘elections’ as a major variable for the global economy in 2024. Foreign media unanimously named ‘Policonomy,’ a portmanteau of ‘Politics’ and ‘Economy,’ as a key term for the world economy in the new year.

Starting with the Taiwan presidential election on the 13th, Indonesia’s presidential and general elections in February, Russia and Ukraine’s presidential elections in March, and South Korea and India’s general elections in April are scheduled consecutively. Forty percent of the world’s population will participate as voters. With the global elections continuing through the U.S. presidential election in November, the possibility of regime changes in major countries raises inevitable geopolitical shifts.

Amy Zegart, a Stanford University political science professor and author of ‘Political Risk,’ told Bloomberg News, “2024 will be a very important year that will determine the future course of human history,” adding, “Through elections, everything changes?the rules of the game, interest rates, market movements, government regulations, policies?and the impact on the global economy will be significant.”

◆Eyes on Taiwan’s Presidential Election... Xi Jinping Says “Unification is Inevitable”

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

A fierce battle of nerves is underway starting with the Taiwan presidential election, marking the beginning of the ‘year of elections.’ Chinese President Xi Jinping stated in his 2024 New Year’s address, “The unification of China and Taiwan is a historical inevitability,” and “Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait must share a common sense of purpose and jointly embrace the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

Currently, in Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, the candidate from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, is leading in the polls. Analysts suggest that Xi’s remarks could deal a blow to Lai’s campaign. Previously, as the Taiwan election approached, Xi gradually intensified his rhetoric regarding Taiwan. Even during a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in November last year, Xi repeatedly mentioned unification with Taiwan, sparking international controversy.

Taiwan is also responding by considering participation in the International Criminal Court (ICC) amid China’s provocations. According to the British Guardian, if Taiwan joins the ICC, it could somewhat deter China’s willingness to forcibly unify Taiwan and increase the likelihood of international support.

◆The Shock ‘Again Trump’ Could Bring... EU Already Worried

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Alongside the Taiwan election, the election attracting the most global attention is undoubtedly the U.S. presidential election in November. Especially if former President Donald Trump, who is currently leading President Biden in U.S. polls, regains power, it is expected that the wars in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the global diplomatic framework, will be significantly altered.

The U.S. political media outlet The Hill reported that an average of 509 polls conducted in the U.S. last year showed Trump’s support at 45.4%, 2 percentage points higher than Biden’s 43.4%. Until mid-October last year, the average support was close, but since then, Trump has maintained an advantage, leading to concerns within and outside U.S. politics about preparing for ‘Again Trump.’

Especially after the Ukraine war, the European Union (EU), which urgently needs U.S. cooperation on security issues, is on high alert. According to Deutsche Welle (DW), EU officials fear that if Trump returns to power, military support for Ukraine could be withdrawn and support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reduced. DW also reported concerns that Trump’s previous plans to impose punitive tariffs on EU member countries during his administration might be revived.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.