[Book Sip] "Xi Jinping Wants to Be Equal to Mao Zedong"

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This is a study on US-China relations analyzed by a former Australian Prime Minister, known as "the Western politician who understands China best." Having been interested in China since his teenage years and majored in Chinese studies at university, he also studied abroad in Taiwan and later served as a diplomat in China. Known as the Western senior official who speaks the most perfect Chinese, he communicated directly with high-ranking Chinese officials and is reported to have met with Xi Jinping, the current Chinese President, more than eight times in the past. As a diplomat, he refrains from directly labeling China as a hegemonic power or Xi Jinping as a dictator. Instead, he analyzes the visible phenomena based on the background within China, the political context, and Xi Jinping's personal ambitions, drawing on information obtained from various senior Chinese officials.

"The most serious risk is the possibility of war between the US and China over Taiwan. We must acknowledge that this is no longer a matter of imagination. If armed conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, or the East China Sea, it will undoubtedly be a war far more destructive than what is currently happening in Ukraine. This war could expand extensively across land, sea, and even space. There is also a high likelihood that many other countries around the world will become involved. Taiwan will suffer massive casualties. The conflict surrounding Taiwan would be a disaster for both the US and China, and it would bring unforeseen consequences for the future of both countries and their subsequent roles on the international stage." - p.10~11

"The following year, as Prime Minister, I visited Washington (which was part of an overseas tour that included Beijing) and congratulated them on successfully navigating a precarious period in relations with China. At that time, Chen Shui-bian, then President of Taiwan, was openly advocating for Taiwan's independence. This was a dangerous statement that could trigger a war with China. President Bush adjusted US policy by warning him that if he continued to play with fire, even if war broke out, the 82nd Airborne Division would not necessarily come to Taiwan's rescue. Chen Shui-bian immediately came to his senses, and thanks to National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, President Bush was able to handle the complex Taiwan issue well." - p.78

"Chinese financial and economic officials who were educated in the US and sought to apply the American model in their home country faced criticism from other conservative officials who had witnessed the US economic crisis. At that time, Vice Premier Wang Qishan said to US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, 'I have learned from you all this time... Take a look at your system, Hank. I don't know what more we can learn now.'" - p.79

"The reason I described Xi Jinping's worldview as 'Marxist nationalism' is that when he appeals to the Party, he remains ideological (not only because ideology is the core of Leninist discipline), but when he appeals to the people, he is intensely nationalist. Therefore, Xi Jinping's thought is not a theoretical revision of the deepest tenets of Marxism-Leninism as he claims. Rather, it is more like a skillfully composed guidebook that emotionally appeals by gathering a series of lessons, axioms, and anecdotes tested on the target group." - p.92

"I first met Xi Jinping in 1986. (...) He rarely reads speeches and speaks his mind directly and firmly, much like Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping. He also does not act intimidatingly by pounding the table while showing a firm demeanor. Importantly, through long-term official and unofficial exchanges with Xi Jinping and other top Chinese officials, I was able to gain a more concrete understanding of how they view the world." - p.127~128

"Xi Jinping wants to be equal to Mao Zedong and higher than Deng Xiaoping in the Party's history." - p.134

"At 69 years old in 2022, he has little time left to realize his dream of bringing Taiwan back into the warm embrace of the motherland. Becoming the Chinese Communist Party leader who unifies Taiwan and finally achieves national integration would confirm to the Party and the country that he is a figure comparable to Mao Zedong. It would also be an achievement that silences internal criticism and permanently legitimizes his political authority. According to this logic, Xi Jinping would want to secure Taiwan before his political life ends. He is impatient when it comes to Taiwan." - p.149~150

"After serving as Australian Prime Minister, while working as a senior fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School, I attended a dinner at the US National Defense University with Chinese two-star and three-star generals. (...) I vividly remember the high military alertness shown by my Chinese colleagues regarding the possibility of a large-scale engagement with Japanese forces alone in the East China Sea. They assumed a scenario where the US Navy or Air Force would not intervene at all, and the Chinese military was well aware of their lack of direct field experience." - p.246~247

"Xi Jinping can respond actively if US and Japanese forces intrude into areas he claims as Chinese territory. However, unless the Chinese military has absolute superiority or he is convinced that the political cost of backing down is not too high domestically, he will not allow any incident to escalate irreversibly." - p.417

"Another scenario is the US preemptively striking North Korea as it seeks to acquire full nuclear missile capabilities. However, this could lead to large-scale military actions by North Korea against South Korea, risking a second Korean War. To emphasize again, China's direct military intervention could take the form of supporting North Korea against South Korea and its ally, the US. (...) If the US resumes a hardline diplomatic stance toward North Korea, this scenario could become a reality. Therefore, Biden's mission is to persuade China to prevent such actions by North Korea." - p.459~460

"The core logic of managed strategic competition is to maintain firm political guardrails that minimize the risks of crisis, conflict, and war, while allowing maximum competition in foreign policy, economic, and security relations. Therefore, for these conditions to be mutually accepted and for enforcement to be effective, both sides must be somewhat confident that they can compete and prosper effectively within this framework. Of course, each country's ability to enhance national interests through this competition will depend on various agreed factors, including economic success, political resilience, diplomatic skill, technological advancement, the robustness of their competitive ideological systems, and their attractiveness in the international community." - p.517

Avoidable War | Kevin Rudd | Translated by Kim Ah-young | 528 pages | Geulhangari | 30,000 KRW

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