ⓛOil Money ②Strategic Mistakes ③Weak Diplomatic Power...Three Reasons for Busan Expo Failure

Lost by 90 Votes Without Reaching Finals
Aftershock of Expo Defeat Expected
Only 12 Votes Difference with Italy Without Prime Minister's Attendance
Short Message from Presidential Office
Responsibility of Korean Prime Minister Inevitable

As a result of the vote conducted among 182 BIE member countries, 165 countries participated and cast valid votes. Saudi Arabia (Riyadh) secured 119 votes, accounting for 72.1%, confirming its hosting of the 2030 Expo in the first round of voting. South Korea (Busan) ranked second with 29 votes (17.6%), and Italy (Rome) took third place with 17 votes (10.3%).

‘Saudi Arabia 119 · Korea 29 · Italy 17 votes’

There was no last-minute turnaround or comeback drama. The government’s 17-month all-out effort in the ‘2030 Busan Expo bidding race’ ended in a crushing defeat by a margin of 90 votes. Despite a ‘triangular alliance’ of ministries, corporations, and local governments launching an aggressive campaign for over a year, it failed to even reach the final round and suffered a complete loss. Particularly painful was the fact that the gap with Italy (Rome), which was effectively seen as having ‘abandoned the Expo midway’ due to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s absence, was only 12 votes.

Cause 1: Oil Money

The biggest cause of Busan Expo’s defeat was Saudi Arabia’s ‘luxurious volume offensive.’ The Yoon Suk-yeol administration failed to persuade BIE member countries of Korea’s unique strengths that could offset the oil money.

Saudi Arabia stationed itself in Paris, where the International Bureau of Expositions (BIE) General Assembly was held, and engaged in full-scale negotiations. They stayed at the Hotel de Crillon (owned by the Saudi royal family) located at Place de la Concorde in Paris, campaigning 24/7 for votes. It was reported that Saudi officials staying there believed that if the Expo hosting bid failed, they would all have to ‘resign their positions.’ Locally in Paris, rumors circulated that ‘luxury watches for negotiations were sold out’ and that Saudi Arabia, home to Mecca, even offered a ‘pilgrimage restriction card,’ illustrating how fierce the bidding war was.

From the perspective of BIE member countries voting, they had no choice but to consider Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter. Saudi Arabia holds 17.2% of the world’s proven oil reserves. The absolute monarchy ruled by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which allows for long-term rule, also played a role. Since coming to power in 2017, Bin Salman has staked his fate on winning the 2030 Expo bid. Unexpected variables such as the ‘monopoly check theory’ related to the World Cup hosting and the ‘Israel-Hamas war’ did not appear to be decisive factors.

Cause 2: Strategic Mistakes

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is moving to a press conference after Busan was eliminated in the vote for the host city of the 2030 World Expo at the 173rd General Assembly of the International Bureau of Expositions (BIE) held on the afternoon of the 28th (local time) at the Palais des Congr?s on the outskirts of Paris, France. From left: Park Hyung-joon, Mayor of Busan; Prime Minister Han; Choi Tae-won, Chairman of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Photo by Yonhap News.

Korea’s strategy was to block Saudi Arabia with ‘more than two-thirds’ in the first round of voting and to ‘absorb Italy’s votes’ in the second round. However, despite the unexpected absence of the Italian Prime Minister from the BIE General Assembly, the vote gap with Rome was not large. This is why there are criticisms that the 17 months of behind-the-scenes negotiations, which began with the launch of the bidding committee in July last year and involved traveling 495 times around the Earth, did not yield substantial results. Korea failed to promote Busan’s soft power or appeal to counter Saudi Arabia’s oil money strategy.

The government expected that if it passed the first round, the second round would be a tight ‘51 to 49’ race against Saudi Arabia. However, in the end, it failed to convert the swing votes supporting Saudi Arabia into floating votes in the first round. Busan’s vote count was only a quarter of Riyadh’s. This exposed strategic limitations in international event bidding negotiations.

The ‘secret ballot’ feature was also not leveraged. Since the Expo is decided by anonymous voting of representatives from 182 BIE member countries, predictions are impossible. Each country issues guidelines to its representatives on which city to vote for before voting, but ambassadors or embassy officials in France may exercise discretion in choosing the host country. The government tried to reflect this by conducting a ‘niche diplomacy campaign,’ but it proved insufficient.

Cause 3: Weak Diplomatic Capability

President Yoon Suk-yeol is delivering the policy speech on the 2024 budget and fund operation plan at the National Assembly plenary session on the 31st. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Failure to read the voting intentions of Africa (49 votes, 26.9%) and Europe (49 votes, 26.9%), which had a high voting weight due to equal vote distribution among BIE member countries, was also cited as a cause. Senior government officials involved in the bidding admitted that ‘there were limits due to last-minute efforts’ and ‘public development aid (ODA) was not strategically utilized.’ Coupled with weak international event response capabilities exposed by the Jamboree fiasco, Korea’s diplomatic expansion through soft power clearly showed its limitations.

As a result, the presidential office and ruling party, which intended to use the Busan Expo bid as momentum for the general election in April next year, inevitably faced setbacks. Prime Minister Han, who served as co-chairman of the joint bidding committee, is also expected to face accountability in the cabinet reshuffle phase.

From July last year until now, the combined distance traveled by President Yoon, Prime Minister Han Deok-soo, National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo, and heads of 14 companies for the Busan Expo bid totals 19,891,579 km, equivalent to 495 laps around the Earth. Since taking office, President Yoon has met 462 officials from 96 countries, and Prime Minister Han has met 203 officials from 112 countries.

Meanwhile, after the voting results were announced, Prime Minister Han Deok-soo said at a press conference held in Paris, “We have gained a new diplomatic asset,” and added, “We will work to further develop it.” Kim Eun-hye, the presidential office’s chief spokesperson, issued a written briefing that morning, stating, “Although the public and private sectors worked fiercely as one team, we faced a disappointing result,” and expressed condolences and gratitude to the citizens of Busan and the nation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.