North Korea Officially Declares "September 19 Agreement" Nullification... Is Inter-Korean Relations Heading Toward Complete Termination?

North Korea's Ministry of Defense Officially Declares 9·19 Agreement Void
Ballistic Missile Provocation on Day of Reconnaissance Satellite Launch
Kim Ki-hyun "Considering Complete Nullification of Agreement"

North Korea has officially declared the termination of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement. This appears to be a backlash against the South Korean government's suspension of certain provisions of the September 19 military agreement and the strengthening of military reconnaissance in response to North Korea's third reconnaissance satellite launch. Following the third reconnaissance satellite launch, North Korea continued provocations by firing ballistic missiles into the East Sea, escalating military tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

According to the Korean Central News Agency on the 23rd, the North Korean Ministry of Defense stated in a declaration that "those irresponsible and serious political and military provocations that have driven the current situation into an uncontrollable phase must pay the price," and added, "We will withdraw the military measures taken to prevent military tensions and clashes in all spaces including land, sea, and air, and will deploy stronger forces and new military equipment forward in the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) area."

On the 22nd, the area around Kaepung County, Hwanghaebuk-do, North Korea, viewed from Odusan Unification Observatory in Paju-si, Gyeonggi Province, is calm after North Korea announced the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite the previous night. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

North Korea's mention of the MDL seems to target the South Korean government's immediate deployment of surveillance reconnaissance assets to the front line and resumption of reconnaissance against the North right after suspending parts of the September 19 military agreement. Currently, around 1,000 various artillery pieces capable of firing approximately 16,000 shells per hour are deployed in the northern area near the MDL along the armistice line, and this statement is interpreted as an intention to further reinforce these forces.

Following the third reconnaissance satellite launch, North Korea has also formalized plans for additional launches. The news agency reported that Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, visited the National Aerospace Development Administration and said, "We must launch more various reconnaissance satellites, deploy them into orbit, provide abundant valuable real-time information about the enemy, and enhance our readiness." It is highly likely that North Korea will submit a proposal for additional satellite launches at the upcoming 9th plenary meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party, expected to be held within the year, and review and decide on reconnaissance satellite launch plans for next year.

It is also expected that North Korea will diversify its methods of provocation. On the previous night at around 11:05 PM, North Korea launched a ballistic missile into the East Sea from the Sunan area in South Pyongan Province. The South Korean military estimates the launch failed. This was the first ballistic missile launch from the Sunan area into the East Sea in over two months since September 13. In the future, North Korea may use the technology from military reconnaissance satellite launch vehicles to fire new intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) or mix short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) and new ballistic missile launches to carry out simultaneous multiple provocations.

If North Korea continues military provocations, the South Korean government is expected to proceed with the full termination of the September 19 agreement. Official termination of the agreement would mean lifting the buffer zone between the two Koreas, inevitably escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Frontline guard posts (GP) withdrawn from the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) could be reinstalled, and the Joint Security Area (JSA) could be rearmed.

Broadcasts using loudspeakers directed at North Korea and leaflet drops could also resume. The Moon Jae-in administration enacted the Inter-Korean Relations Development Act as a follow-up measure to implement the September 19 military agreement, banning loudspeaker broadcasts, visual media postings, and leaflet drops targeting North Korea. If President Yoon Suk Yeol suspends the agreement's effectiveness under the same law, such activities may become possible again. Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "North Korea's declaration of terminating the military agreement is an intention to formalize additional military satellite launches and training, and it will raise military tensions through various provocations going forward."

Meanwhile, Kim Ki-hyun, leader of the People Power Party, stated at the party's Supreme Council meeting on the same day, "If one side repeatedly violates the agreement unilaterally, that agreement is nothing more than a scrap of paper," and added, "If North Korea continues provocations, we will consider with the government measures to nullify the entire September 19 agreement."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.