[Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club] Why Did Buk Launch a Surprise Satellite?

Possibility of Surprise Launch Considering Weather Near Launch Site

North Korea's surprise launch of a military reconnaissance satellite ahead of the announced schedule has drawn significant attention. Various analyses suggest that the move aims to seize military dominance, conscious of South Korea's reconnaissance satellites.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 22nd, North Korea notified the Japanese government that it would launch a satellite between midnight on the 22nd and midnight on the 1st of next month. However, at around 10:43 PM on the 21st, North Korea launched the satellite southward from the Dongchang-ri area in North Pyongan Province.

The primary reason for the surprise launch is presumed to be unfavorable weather conditions near the launch site. North Korea's Sinuiju, close to the West Sea Satellite Launching Station, was forecasted to be cloudy from midnight to 7 AM on the 22nd, with precipitation probability rising to as high as 60% after 8 AM. Military authorities were closely monitoring the Dongchang-ri area from early dawn on the 22nd due to the possibility of snowfall.

Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "North Korea carried out a deceptive surprise launch while South Korea and the international community expected the launch at dawn on the 22nd. They may have tactically adjusted the timing to avoid high-attention periods. It is also possible they moved the schedule to today because the weather tomorrow morning was forecasted to be cloudy and humid."

Internal Cohesion and Countering South Korean Military Reconnaissance Satellites

Internally, Kim Jong-un lacks achievements to showcase by the end of the year. With the leadership crisis in North Korea worsening due to the economic difficulties, it is highly likely that this event was intended to solidify internal unity. According to the National Intelligence Service, the number of starvation deaths in North Korea up to July this year reached 245, more than double the recent five-year average of about 110. Due to international sanctions stemming from nuclear and missile advancements and lockdowns to block COVID-19, North Korea's economy is experiencing its worst contraction since the 'Arduous March.'

There is also a significant purpose to counter South Korea's military reconnaissance satellites. At the 8th Party Congress in January 2021, North Korea included the development of military reconnaissance satellites as one of the five core tasks in its five-year plan to strengthen defense capabilities. The preemptive launch signifies an attempt to demonstrate military dominance over the Korean Peninsula by launching satellites earlier than South Korea.

As part of the '425 Project,' South Korea plans to launch a total of five high-resolution medium-to-large (around 800 kg) reconnaissance satellites, including four high-performance Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites and one reconnaissance satellite equipped with Electro-Optical (EO) and Infrared (IR) sensors. On the 30th of this month, a satellite equipped with EO and IR sensors will be launched using a Falcon 9 rocket built by SpaceX from the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, USA. Subsequently, starting in April next year, four SAR satellites will be launched consecutively. Once all five satellites are sequentially placed into orbit, the South Korean military will have the capability to collect satellite images and videos of key facilities such as missile bases and nuclear test sites in North Korea at approximately two-hour intervals.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.