[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Satellite Failures in a Row, Did It Succeed This Time?

Performance Uncertain Even After Placing Reconnaissance Satellite in Orbit

As North Korea launches a military reconnaissance satellite, attention is focused on whether the technology development has been successful. Experts believe that while the rocket propulsion issue appears to have been resolved, the satellite's performance remains uncertain.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea's first and second reconnaissance satellite launches in May and August ended in failure due to rocket propulsion issues. North Korea's space launch vehicle carrying the reconnaissance satellite consists of first, second, and third stage propulsion systems. Military authorities report that problems occurred during the second stage propulsion flight phase in both the first and second launches.

If the new satellite carrier rocket 'Chollima-1' was successfully launched as North Korea claims, it raises the possibility that Russia provided technical advice to resolve issues with the existing propulsion engine.

On the 19th, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik appeared on KBS's 'Sunday Diagnosis' and stated, "To launch a reconnaissance satellite, the engine must be properly equipped and engine tests must be conducted," adding, "We believe that with Russia's help, the engine problems have been almost resolved."

Professor Jang Young-geun of the Air Force University said, "Considering that a relaunch was attempted three months after the second launch failure and the launch trajectory was presented identically, it is difficult to believe that there was a design change in the engine itself."

A military official also explained, "Even before the North Korea-Russia summit on September 13, the 'Baekdusan series' (80-ton class liquid fuel) engine base was brought into North Korea from Russia (possibly through hacking, etc.)," adding, "After the summit, there are indications that Russian technicians entered."

Launch Vehicle Technology Transferred from Russia... Satellite Resolution Remains Uncertain

The issue lies in the resolution of the military reconnaissance satellite. Even if North Korea places a reconnaissance satellite into orbit, it is uncertain how well it will perform. At the time of the first launch failure (May 31), the resolution of North Korea's Malligyong-1 (reconnaissance satellite) recovered by the military was at the level of several meters, which was of minimal military utility. To accurately identify the locations of our military's key facilities and bases, North Korea must possess high resolution. Our military reconnaissance satellites have a resolution of about 30 cm, while U.S. reconnaissance satellites have a resolution of about 10 cm.

Russia may negotiate with North Korea regarding the transfer of military reconnaissance satellite resolution technology. If North Korea receives Russia's sub-meter level (identifying objects less than 1 meter in width and length) resolution technology, it could launch successive reconnaissance satellites.

A government official said, "If North Korea inherits Russia's core technology, it is highly likely that they will consecutively launch satellites not only for low Earth orbit but also for medium Earth orbit and geostationary orbit to conduct reconnaissance over the Korean Peninsula."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.