Will 'Bananas and Mangoes from the Korean Peninsula' Take Root? "Temperature to Rise 3 Degrees by Century's End"

66% Chance of 2.9°C Rise by 2100
"Global Warming Has Surpassed Controllable Threshold"

The United Nations has projected that if current trends in climate change responses by countries continue, the Earth's temperature will rise by 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, far exceeding the limits of global warming.

"Global warming has surpassed the controllable threshold"

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) pointed out in its '2023 Emissions Gap Report' released on the 20th (local time) that global greenhouse gas emissions are not decreasing but rather increasing, pushing warming beyond the threshold that humans can control.

Previously, countries around the world pledged under the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change to reduce greenhouse gas emissions so that the average global temperature would not rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

However, according to the report, even if all countries fulfill their unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) based on their own resources and capabilities, there is a 66% chance that the temperature rise will reach 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100. The report warns that at this rate, vast areas of the Earth could become fundamentally uninhabitable for humans.

Furthermore, even if countries go beyond their unconditional NDCs and implement conditional NDCs relying on international means and external support, the temperature rise is still estimated to reach a catastrophic 2.5 degrees Celsius during the same period.

Greenhouse gas emissions increased again last year... counted at 57.4 billion tons

Glaciers are melting due to climate change.
[Image provided by NASA]

The increase in greenhouse gas emissions is also problematic. Last year, global greenhouse gas emissions were recorded at 57.4 billion tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous year. Due to this rise in emissions last year, the projected temperature increase by 2100 in this report is higher than the 2.4 to 2.6 degrees Celsius rise forecasted in last year’s report. If countries implement their current NDCs, global emissions are expected to decrease to 55 billion tons by 2030.

However, to limit the temperature rise to the Paris Agreement’s primary target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions must be reduced by 42% to 33 billion tons, leaving a gap of 22 billion tons. Considering this, the report points out that the likelihood of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030 is only 14%.

Additionally, to keep the temperature rise within the next target of 2 degrees Celsius, emissions must be reduced by 28% to 41 billion tons, with an emissions gap of 16 billion tons remaining. The report also noted that from the beginning of this year through the end of September, there were 86 days when the global daily average temperature rose more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

"We can no longer delay climate issues"

Drought. [Image source=Pixabay]

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the European Union’s climate monitoring agency, the temperature rise during the entire month of October and the first two weeks of November also exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius, meaning that the number of days with a temperature rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius since the beginning of the year has reached 127 days, about 40% of the period, AP News reported.

Accordingly, Ant?nio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, urged countries to take dramatic actions at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP28), opening on the 30th in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE).

He said, "Leaders can no longer postpone the problem. We have gone off track." He emphasized that the world must take decisive measures to reduce fossil fuels and "reverse the trend."

The lead author of this report, Anne Olof from the Danish climate think tank Concito, stated that only nine countries have presented new reduction targets over the past two years, but the United States and some European countries have introduced policies slightly better than previous projections.

She forecasted that the United States would reduce annual emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030 through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which invests $375 billion (approximately 483 trillion KRW) in clean energy.

From domestically grown mangoes to bananas... the reversed fruit map of the Korean Peninsula

Climate change is also directly affecting the Korean Peninsula. The average temperature in Korea from June to August was 23.7 degrees Celsius during the normal period (1991-2000), but in the recent decade (2013-2022), it rose by 0.6 degrees to 24.3 degrees Celsius.

As the average temperature rises, the number of farms cultivating subtropical crops is also increasing. However, most are in the form of facility cultivation.

According to the Korea Institute of Planning and Evaluation for Technology in Food, Agriculture and Forestry, the number of farms cultivating subtropical fruits in Korea was 556 households in 2021, nearly a 50% increase compared to 372 households in 2017. The cultivation area was 186.8 hectares in the same year, a 70.7% increase from 109.4 hectares in 2017. The most widely cultivated subtropical fruits (as of 2021) were mangoes (76.8 hectares), passion fruit (34.6 hectares), and bananas (21.2 hectares), in that order.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.