Shin Won-sik: "North Korea to launch military reconnaissance satellite as early as two weeks or by the 30th at the latest"

"Solid Fuel Test Success, Rather a Poison to North Korea"

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik predicted that North Korea could carry out a reconnaissance satellite launch within as soon as two weeks.

Minister Shin appeared on KBS1TV's 'Sunday Diagnosis' on the morning of the 19th and said, "I think North Korea might launch before South Korea's first military reconnaissance satellite is launched from the U.S. Vandenberg Air Force Base on November 30 via SpaceX's 'Falcon 9,' possibly within a week."

Minister Shin emphasized, "South Korea and the U.S. are jointly monitoring the situation. Preparations for a possible launch around a week from now are steadily progressing."

He explained, "(North Korea) is believed to have almost resolved engine issues with Russia's help," adding, "After testing the engine, they move to Dongchang-ri, assemble a fixed launch pad, and it takes about a week to load liquid fuel."

Regarding the reason for closely watching North Korea's reconnaissance satellite launch trends, Minister Shin said, "If a bomb is placed on top of the reconnaissance satellite, it becomes an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which violates the UN Security Council resolutions and shows progress in rocket technology weaponization."

He continued, "Our military advantage over North Korea lies in surveillance capabilities, but reconnaissance satellites could dramatically enhance North Korea's surveillance capabilities, potentially offsetting our advantage, which is why the U.S. is also closely monitoring this."

Minister Shin also expressed concern over North Korea's announcement of successful solid-fuel engine tests for a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on the 11th and 14th. He assessed, "There appears to have been significant progress in North Korean technology," but added, "It does not seem to be a complete success yet."

Regarding North Korea's 'Missile Industry Day' on November 18, Minister Shin said, "We predicted they would launch the solid-fuel IRBM yesterday, but since they did not, we lean toward the possibility that they might conduct one more test."

However, he warned that the success of solid-fuel tests could actually be detrimental to North Korea. Minister Shin said, "North Korea has about 1,000 missiles, but except for short-range ones, all operationally deployed missiles are liquid-fueled," and predicted, "Converting all of them to solid fuel would require an enormous amount of money."

He added, "Missiles require advanced semiconductors and advanced composite materials like carbon fiber, which North Korea can hardly produce and must smuggle in," emphasizing, "If we strictly enforce the strategic goods export control system, even if North Korea succeeds in testing solid-fuel missiles, mass production and operational deployment can be significantly blocked."

Furthermore, he said, "Even if they switch to solid fuel, the enormous cost could act as a catalyst accelerating their collapse."

Regarding the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement, which has recently been discussed for suspension within the government, he reaffirmed the position that it should be terminated.

He said, "The opposition party argues that suspending the September 19 military agreement would give North Korea a pretext for provocations, but North Korea launched the Taepodong-1 during President Kim Dae-jung's era in 1998, engaged in the first and second Yeonpyeong naval battles, and conducted its first nuclear test during President Roh Moo-hyun's term," adding, "North Korea provokes when it believes it has the upper hand over South Korea."

He pointed out, "North Korea has been deceiving us continuously for the past 70 years, and if we are deceived again, the problem lies more with the deceived than the deceiver. It would be a laughingstock."

Regarding arms trade trends between North Korea and Russia, he said, "Since Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia this year, it has increased sharply," adding, "It is estimated that about 3,000 containers have been sent to Russia so far," and "They have sent anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles."

He continued, "North Korea has benefited from the Ukraine war by exporting many weapons, and this winter, a considerable amount of food and fuel likely flowed in from Russia," adding, "We are closely monitoring and preparing countermeasures with the U.S. regarding the inflow of advanced military technology that could affect us."

Regarding the Korea Defense Industry Agency (KIDA)'s proposal to reduce the initial production volume of Korea's first indigenous supersonic fighter jet KF-21 to half of the original plan, Minister Shin added, "We are persuading the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the National Assembly to proceed according to the basic plan, and there has been progress."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.