Neck-and-Neck Until the End... Saudi Arabia's Volume Offensive and Even the Restriction Card on Pilgrimage

2030 Busan Expo Bid D-5
Saudi Arabia's All-Out Defense Including Pilgrimage Quota System
Bin Salman, Palestinian Support and Oil Production Cut Variables

The 'Hotel de Crillon' located at Place de la Concorde in Paris, France. Owned by Saudi Arabian royal Mutayib bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, this hotel has been hosting numerous Saudi officials who are negotiating intensely like a '007 espionage war' ahead of the decision on the host country for the 2030 World Expo on the 28th (local time). Recently, as President Yoon Suk-yeol and both the public and private sectors of Korea have been making aggressive moves as a 'one team' to attract the Busan Expo, signs of wavering voter sentiment have appeared, prompting a desperate all-out defense from Saudi Arabia.

According to diplomatic sources on the 24th, the Expo bidding competition, now just five days away, is neck and neck. The Expo, decided by vote at the International Bureau of Expositions (BIE) General Assembly held in Paris, is contested between Busan, Korea, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia Launches Massive Offensive Including Restrictions on Islamic Pilgrimage

In particular, Saudi Arabia has been aggressively competing from the start, leveraging its 'oil money,' and recently has been targeting last-minute voter sentiment with a 'luxurious massive offensive.' A diplomatic source said, “Saudi officials can be frequently seen near the BIE General Assembly venue in Paris, meeting with heads of state and ambassadors from various countries multiple times,” adding, “They have dispatched additional personnel to the Crillon Hotel to canvass votes, and there is a sensed atmosphere of concern about a possible 'turnaround' by Korea.” Especially Crown Prince Bin Salman has promoted the FIFA World Cup and the 2030 Expo bids as future achievements, so Saudi officials reportedly feel that if the Expo hosting bid fails, they would effectively have to 'step down.'

Recently, Saudi Arabia has even quietly brought out the card of restricting pilgrimage visas to Mecca, the Islamic holy site located in Saudi Arabia, to pressure member countries. They have threatened, “If you do not vote for Saudi Arabia, we will limit the number of pilgrims,” or effectively engage in 'money politics' by saying, “We will use oil money in the president’s hometown.” A diplomatic source said, “Some ambassadors from various countries have expressed fatigue over Saudi Arabia’s money-driven strategy and have conveyed concerns to Korea.”

The wild card is the secret ballot. The Expo host is decided by a secret vote of representatives from 182 BIE member countries, so the result cannot be guaranteed until the votes are revealed. Each country issues instructions to its representatives on which city to vote for before the vote, but there is a possibility that the ambassador to France or embassy attach?s may exercise discretion in choosing the host city. Saudi Arabia has even demanded that certain countries change their voting representatives.

Saudi Arabia’s plan is to secure victory in the first round by surpassing two-thirds of the votes, i.e., 122 votes. If this happens, the Expo host city can be decided in the first round. However, if no city obtains more than two-thirds of the votes, the city ranked third is eliminated, and a runoff vote between the first and second place cities is held on the same day. In the runoff, the city with the most votes wins.

Korea’s strategy is to block Saudi Arabia from reaching the two-thirds majority in the first round and to absorb Italy’s votes in the second round, while expanding its support base through 'justification' and 'storytelling.' Special focus is placed on winning the 'key men'?the African votes (49 votes, 26.9%).

What is the Final Outlook?

Korea started its vote-gathering activities later than competitors like Saudi Arabia, and initially was trailing in the early stages of the bidding due to Saudi Arabia’s massive offensive. However, government officials believe the atmosphere changed significantly after the BIE inspection team visited Busan in April. The inspection team typically highly evaluates the host country’s enthusiasm for the Expo, and they were reportedly impressed by the passionate support of Busan citizens during their visit.

Especially, the rapidly changing international situation is also a variable. After Crown Prince Bin Salman recently expressed support for Palestine, which is at war with Israel, and combined with the oil production cut measures, the situation is interpreted as having shifted favorably toward Korea. There remains a possibility that Western countries, suffering from an energy crisis due to Russia’s halt of oil exports following its invasion of Ukraine, may withdraw their support for Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, since Saudi Arabia hosted the World Cup, there is a theory of 'monopoly check,' making it difficult to predict the voting trends of countries until the very end, resulting in an extremely close race. A government official said, “There are more floating votes than fixed votes, so the outcome will be unpredictable until behind-the-scenes negotiations conclude,” adding, “We will stage a dramatic comeback through communicative diplomacy against Saudi Arabia’s hard bargaining diplomacy.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.