[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] National Research Institute Douses Enthusiasm for KF-21 Development

KIDA Lowers Initial KF-21 Production Volume Citing Low Development Success Rate
Air Force Power Gap Expected to Widen if Production Falls Short

The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) has put the brakes on the development of the Korean fighter jet KF-21 Boramae, raising concerns about disruptions to the Air Force's combat capabilities. KIDA argues that the initial production quantity of 40 units should be reduced to 20 due to uncertainties about the project's success, which could cause difficulties not only for the Air Force's operational strength but also for related partner companies.

On the 17th, the domestically produced supersonic fighter jet KF-21 was unveiled at the 'Seoul International Aerospace and Defense Exhibition (ADEX) 2023' held at Seoul Airport in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

According to military officials on the 6th, during a confidential final discussion held on the 30th of last month with representatives from the Air Force and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, KIDA's conclusion from its feasibility study was revealed: the initial production quantity of the KF-21 should be cut from 40 to 20 units.

The KF-21 project is underway with plans to produce 40 initial units between 2026 and 2028, followed by an additional 80 units by 2032, delivering a total of 120 aircraft to the Air Force. However, KIDA's conclusion is that the initial production quantity should be halved from 40 to 20 units.

If the initial production quantity by Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), the system integrator for the KF-21, is reduced from 40 to 20 units, the unit cost is expected to rise from around 88 billion won to over 100 billion won, which could delay the aircraft's deployment and reduce its price competitiveness, potentially negatively impacting exports.

Hanwha Aerospace will license-produce GE's F414 engines domestically for the KF-21. LIG Nex1 is developing the KF-21's core armament, the Long-Range Air-to-Ground Cruise Missile (KALCM), led by the Agency for Defense Development, and Hanwha Systems is developing an AESA radar capable of detecting, tracking, and guiding missiles against aerial, ground, and maritime targets. With over 700 partner companies involved, there are concerns that reducing the initial production quantity could destabilize the entire industrial ecosystem.

The impact on exports is also significant. It has been pointed out that a national research institute mentioning uncertainties about the project could undermine the credibility of Korea's defense industry and the KF-21. Poland and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shown interest in acquiring the KF-21 and reportedly conveyed their willingness to participate in joint development to the Korean government. Last month, KAI opened a Central Europe office in Poland and announced plans to expand export markets for its main aviation platforms, including the FA-50, Surion, and KF-21.

There are also concerns about gaps in the Air Force's combat capabilities. The KF-21 initial production was planned to replace aging F-4 and F-5 fighters urgently needing replacement, but this plan may face setbacks. The Air Force intends to operationalize the 40 initial units produced between 2026 and 2028 and produce an additional 80 units by 2032, totaling 120 aircraft to replace the aging F-4 and F-5 fighters.

A military official said, "The defense industry particularly requires economies of scale, so it is essential to open overseas markets," adding, "In a situation where export opportunities must be created, it is puzzling that the defense research institute raises concerns about the success of the KF-21 project."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.