'Independent' Kennedy Shakes Up US Presidential Race... Absorbing More Trump Votes Than Biden
4-Character Virtual Matchup Poll Results
Biden 36.6% · Trump 36.5%
Two-Thirds of Kennedy Supporters Say "Will Vote Republican if Not Kennedy"
Contrary to Expectations, Biden Expected to Take More Damage
In a multi-candidate hypothetical matchup ahead of the U.S. presidential election next November, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerged as a dark horse by surpassing 10% in support. Notably, two-thirds of Kennedy supporters said they would vote for the Republican candidate if not for Kennedy, revealing a voter sentiment different from the previous assumption that Kennedy's candidacy would shake the Democratic base. Foreign media predicted that Kennedy's rapid rise could further complicate the election landscape next year.
According to USA Today on the 24th (local time), a joint poll conducted with Suffolk University from the 17th to the 20th surveyed 1,000 registered voters, showing that in a four-way hypothetical race, President Biden and former President Donald Trump each received 36.6% and 36.5% of the vote, respectively.
Kennedy, a member of the prestigious Kennedy family in American politics who initially declared participation in the Democratic primary but then switched to independent, recorded 13.2%. Cornell West, a Black social activist who announced his intention to run under the Green Party but ultimately ran as an independent, garnered 4.2% support.
What is noteworthy is that among those who supported Kennedy, two-thirds said they would have supported the Republican candidate if Kennedy were not in the race. This result contrasts with the previous expectation that Kennedy’s independent run, based on the ruling Democratic Party, would hurt President Biden more due to the nature of his support base. In fact, if Kennedy were not included, former President Trump would lead with 41% support over President Biden’s 39%. If West did not run, President Biden would hold a slight lead with 38% over Trump’s 37%. In this scenario, Kennedy’s support was counted at 14%. If neither Kennedy nor West ran, Biden and Trump would be tied at 41% each.
USA Today analyzed, "Due to Kennedy, Trump lost a narrow lead, resulting in a tie between Biden and Trump," adding, "This outcome illustrates the complex calculations and unstable political situation expected in a Biden-Trump rematch likely to include one or more significant independent candidates."
In this hypothetical matchup, former President Trump was found to have a more solid base of enthusiastic supporters than President Biden. When asked how passionately they support their preferred candidate, respondents gave Trump an average score of 7.1 and Biden 6.28.
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Earlier, on the 9th, Kennedy withdrew from the Democratic primary and declared an independent run. A Harvard graduate and environmental lawyer, he sparked controversy by leading opposition to COVID-19 vaccinations during the pandemic and promoting conspiracy theories. In a recent three-way hypothetical race conducted by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and polling firm Harris Poll, former President Trump led with 39% support over President Biden’s 33%, while Kennedy recorded 19%.
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