"All 13 Major Carbon Countries Struggle to Achieve 2030 NDC... China, India, Russia Lack Commitment"

Hankyung Association Calculates Major Countries' Greenhouse Gas Emissions
China, India, Russia Likely to Increase Emissions by 2030
South Korea's Target Unrealistic... 34.2% Gap Between Target and Projection

It is projected that all 13 countries with the highest carbon dioxide emissions will find it difficult to achieve their 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets for greenhouse gas reduction. These 13 countries are China, the United States, India, Russia, Japan, Brazil, Iran, Indonesia, Germany, Canada, South Korea, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia.

A month before the 'Global Stocktake (GST)' scheduled to take place at the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on the 30th of next month, a survey has indicated that achieving these targets is unrealistic. The GST is a process to review the progress of target implementation since the Paris Agreement on climate change came into effect in 2015.

Majid Al Suwaidi, Secretary-General and Special Representative of COP28, speaking during a press interview at Songdo Convensia, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon on August 30.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

On the 24th, the Korea Economic Association announced the gap between the 2030 emission projections and each country's NDC targets based on past emissions data from major greenhouse gas-emitting countries. The calculation assumed that the emission trend (BAU·Business-As-Usual) from 2005, when the Kyoto Protocol (an international agreement on greenhouse gas reduction) came into effect, to 2021 would continue through the eight years from 2022 to 2030.

The survey results showed that global greenhouse gas emissions are not decreasing. Emissions in 2021 reached a record high of 48.6 gigatons (GtCO2-eq), with an average annual growth rate of 1.39% since 1990. In 2021, 69.6% of emissions came from the top 13 countries. The top four countries accounted for 53.6% of emissions: China (29.4%·14.3 Gt), the United States (12.9%·6.28 Gt), India (6.9%·3.36 Gt), and Russia (4.4%·2.16 Gt).

The problem is that the expected reductions in these four countries fall short of their targets. In particular, China, India, and Russia are expected to have higher emissions in 2030 than they do now.

China has not specified how much it will reduce emissions by 2030. It has only stated that it will reach peak greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The target year for achieving carbon neutrality is set at 2060, which is 10 years later than the international community’s goal of 2050. Considering that China began constructing new coal power plants with a capacity of 37 GW in the first half of this year, it is uncertain whether China’s greenhouse gas emissions will actually decrease before 2030.

India and Russia’s 2030 emission targets are higher than their 2021 emission levels. India’s 2030 target is 4.6 gigatons, which is 35.3% higher than the 3.4 gigatons emitted in 2021. India has announced plans to increase coal power generation by 25% compared to 2022 and set its carbon neutrality target year at 2070.

Russia aims to reduce its 2030 emissions to 2.4 gigatons, which is 70% of its 1990 level, but this is 11.1% higher than its 2021 emissions of 2.16 gigatons. Russia’s carbon neutrality target year is 2060.

The United States has pledged to reduce emissions by 50-52% compared to 2005 levels, targeting 3.9 to 4.2 gigatons by 2030. However, recent research by the U.S. Congressional Research Service suggests that even with the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) policy, the maximum reduction achievable is estimated to be 43%.

Countries like the United Kingdom and Germany, which were promoting a transition to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power that do not emit carbon, have withdrawn their coal phase-out policies due to the energy security crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Trends and Prospects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Korea. [Source=Hankyung Association]

The average greenhouse gas reduction gap rate for the Group of Twenty (G20) countries in 2030 was found to be 25%. The reduction gap rate is the difference between the greenhouse gas emission target and the projected emissions. South Korea’s gap rate is 34.2%, which is 9.2 percentage points higher than the average.

The Korea Economic Association analyzed that South Korea’s high reduction gap rate is because its 2030 NDC targets were set too ambitiously compared to the projected greenhouse gas emissions, which take into account variables such as future economic growth rates, industrial structure, and reduction conditions.

Choo Kwang-ho, head of the Economic and Industrial Department at the Korea Economic Association, said, "Contrary to optimistic declarations, it has become very uncertain whether many countries will implement greenhouse gas reductions as planned. Along with mitigation efforts, it is necessary to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for the era of extreme climate."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.