China's Q3 Economic Growth Rate Holds at 4.9%... Cumulative Basis at 5.2% (Update)

China's third-quarter economic growth rate recorded 4.9%, showing a more resilient performance than expected. Considering the base effect and the National Day holiday effect, the fourth-quarter growth rate is likely to rebound, increasing the possibility of surpassing the government's annual target (around 5.0%).

On the 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was 4.9% year-on-year. This figure exceeded the forecast (4.4%). After declaring the "With-Corona" policy at the end of last year, China's growth rates were 4.5% in the first quarter and 6.3% in the second quarter. The cumulative growth rate for this year, including the third-quarter statistics, is 5.2%.

Major economic indicators released on the same day showed better-than-expected and favorable trends. September industrial production increased by 4.5% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast (4.3%). Retail sales rose by 5.5% year-on-year, exceeding both the previous month's figure (4.6%) and the forecast (4.5%). The unemployment rate in September was 5.0%, improving to the lowest level since October 2021 (4.9%). However, the youth unemployment rate (ages 16-24), which reached a peak of 21.3% in June and has not been released since, remains undisclosed.

The Chinese government has been making strenuous efforts to boost GDP by actively supplying liquidity and adjusting policies recently to respond to the sluggish economic situation that has not recovered easily even after reopening. Concerns have spread that the Chinese economy could enter a long-term recession due to negative factors such as the real estate market crisis and local government debt issues, prompting an increase in response measures recently.

In particular, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, implemented a 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loan of 789 billion yuan (approximately 146 trillion won) on the 16th to properly maintain liquidity in the banking system. This extended the maturity of 500 billion yuan of MLF loans due and injected an additional 289 billion yuan (approximately 53.5 trillion won), the largest amount in over three years since December 2020. Through open market operations, it also injected 134 billion yuan of short-term liquidity.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.