[Global Focus] Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine War... Biden's Foreign Policy at a Dead End

US Shaken Middle East Policy Plan
Focus on Improving Relations Between Israel and Neighboring Countries
Obama Administration's Foreign Policy Line Maintained
'Middle East Detente' Plan Shattered by Hamas
"Reconsideration of Iran Appeasement" Also Criticized
US Military Resources Dispersed, Possibility of China Invading Taiwan
Oil Shock if Iran Joins War... Biden's Reelection Road Difficult

Palestinian armed group Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on the 7th (local time), putting U.S. President Joe Biden in a tight spot. With this war, the number of battlefields where the U.S. must intervene has increased to two, following the Ukraine war. President Biden had pursued a conciliatory policy toward Iran, but news that Iran is behind Hamas's invasion of Israel has dealt a severe blow. As global condemnation pours in over Hamas's invasion, Biden's overall diplomatic strategy of 'minimizing Middle East involvement' has reached a dead end. Amid this situation, the Republican Party in the U.S. Congress is opposing Biden's Middle East policy.

If oil-producing Iran joins the Israel war in the future, the flames of war could spread throughout the Middle East. The aftermath could escalate into the worst economic scenario, including rising international oil prices, soaring inflation, and a recession. Some analysts suggest that the biggest variable determining Biden's reelection chances ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November next year will be his foreign policy.

'Diplomacy Instead of War' Biden's Middle East Policy

The Biden administration's Middle East policy emphasizes diplomacy over war and reducing direct U.S. involvement by improving relations between Israel, the gateway to the Middle East for the U.S., and its neighboring countries. It inherits the foreign policy framework of the Barack Obama administration, summarized by the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq (2011) and the nuclear agreement with Iran (2015). Shortly after taking office in 2021, Biden decided to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. He has been discussing restoring the nuclear deal with Iran, the Middle East's largest anti-American country, which was abandoned by his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, in 2018. Recently, the U.S. exchanged prisoners with Iran and lifted the freeze on $6 billion (about 8.12 trillion won) of Iran's oil export revenues held in South Korea. Unlike the Trump administration's hardline approach that reinstated sanctions on Iran, Biden's approach has been more carrot-oriented, marking a significant difference.

Efforts were also made to improve relations between Israel and its neighbors. Until just before the recent crisis, the U.S. mediated reconciliation between Saudi Arabia, Iran's archrival, and Israel. This was part of a plan to curb China's growing influence in the Middle East, where the U.S. has been retreating, and to restore American leadership. However, the U.S. intends to focus more on the Asia-Pacific region to counter China rather than the Middle East.

Biden's Foreign Policy Stuck in a Quagmire

However, the Biden administration's 'Middle East d?tente' plan was shattered by Hamas's surprise attack on Israel. Especially with observations that Iran, which has long supported Hamas, is behind this attack, criticism of Biden's conciliatory policy toward Iran has poured in both domestically and internationally. Republican figures, including former President Trump, harshly criticized Biden, arguing that misjudgment of Iran led to Hamas's attack on Israel and that the recently unfrozen Iranian oil export funds could be used to support terrorist organizations.

Buildings in Gaza Strip Destroyed by Israeli Airstrikes
[Image Source=Yonhap News]

Cornered, the Biden administration, while stating that there was no confirmed evidence of Iran's involvement, re-froze the previously unfrozen Iranian oil export funds after about a month. The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which the U.S. had worked hard to achieve, also became distant. Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a U.S. think tank, diagnosed, "The U.S.'s ability to broker an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia has now dropped to zero." The New York Times (NYT) and others analyzed that Hamas may have launched the attack in opposition to the reconciliation atmosphere the Biden administration was trying to create between the two countries, further intensifying criticism of President Biden.

The Economist analyzed, "Biden's mediation efforts for a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia have been put on hold, and the 'two-state solution' for coexistence between Israel and Palestine has become more distant," adding, "The hope to ease hostility with Iran has also become difficult to realize." It further stated, "The hope to reduce pressure and tension and ultimately unify the Middle East is now at risk of being overturned," and "The hope to turn away from the Middle East and focus on competition with Russia, especially China, has also faded."

Possibility of a 'Third Front' Forming in the Taiwan Strait

President Joe Biden of the United States and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine (right) [Image source=Yonhap News]

The fact that the number of fronts in which the U.S. is indirectly involved has increased to two due to the Israel-Hamas war is a significant burden for the Biden administration. The West, including the U.S., has been supporting Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in February last year, for over a year and a half, but as the war drags on, fatigue among countries is growing. Skepticism about supporting Ukraine is spreading in the U.S. Congress. With the outbreak of the Israel war, concerns have arisen that U.S. support for Ukraine may be deprioritized. Israel is a U.S. ally receiving $3.8 billion (about 5.15 trillion won) annually in military aid, whereas Ukraine is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the military alliance of North America and Europe.

If U.S. military support decreases amid the prolonged stalemate in the Ukraine war, it could relieve pressure on Russia, which is cornered, and China, eyeing an invasion of Taiwan, might take advantage of the situation to provoke military action. This could lead to the so-called expansion to a 'third front.' On the 8th, Woo Jeung, representative of the Taipei Representative Office in France, appeared on France's Le Figaro TV and, when asked about the possibility of China following the examples of Russia and Hamas, replied, "The likelihood of war in the near future is low, but there is some concern." If a conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait while the U.S. is engaged in two wars, the U.S.'s capacity to deploy military resources would be divided, potentially increasing the likelihood of Chinese provocations.

Especially, despite Ukraine launching a counteroffensive in June with large-scale Western support, it has not been able to turn the tide, raising concerns that China might escalate military pressure on Taiwan. David Andelman, a U.S. CNN columnist and foreign security expert, analyzed, "Ominously, a potential problem of China trying to control Taiwan is approaching," adding, "(U.S.) national resources are not unlimited, and political views clash fiercely. It is virtually impossible to reach a consensus in Congress regarding U.S. military support on three fronts."

'Escalation' Economic Impact... A Gauge for Biden's Reelection

In this situation, the U.S. is focusing all efforts on preventing the Israel war from spreading into a 'Fifth Middle East War.' In an interview with CBS on the 15th, President Biden said, "Hamas must be completely eliminated," but also stated, "Israel's reoccupation of the Gaza Strip would be a big mistake." This is interpreted as allowing Israel's ground forces to enter Gaza but not accepting any attempt to annex territory. Regarding Iran, he warned, "They must not cross the border or escalate the war." Biden is expected to visit Israel directly on the 18th. The U.S. is also strengthening its military firepower by deploying additional aircraft carrier strike groups and fighter jets to the Middle East. This is to demonstrate strong deterrence against war to Hamas as well as Lebanon and Iran, where there are concerns about possible involvement.

Above all, if the scenario of oil-producing Iran joining the war becomes a reality, the U.S. economy is likely to take a direct hit. International oil prices would soar, and inflation, which had just calmed, could rebound. Bloomberg News forecasts that if Iran joins the war, international oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel. Although the Biden administration has so far controlled inflation without a major economic shock, if inflation rises again and growth slows, it would deal a fatal blow to Biden's reelection path next year. Experts predict that the economic impact resulting from Biden's foreign policy, rather than the policy itself, will determine his reelection success.

Glenn Bolzer, a poll expert within the Republican Party, criticized, "Biden's foreign policy has created more problems rather than solving foreign issues," and assessed, "It would be politically wiser for Biden to focus on domestic issues now." He added, "Even if the world is in chaos, if the economy is fine, Biden will succeed in reelection, but if peace comes to the world but voters' outlook on the U.S. economy is bleak, Biden will be defeated."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.