'Election Predictor' Lee Jun-seok, His Forgotten April Prophecy [Politics That Day]

Warning of Election Crisis in the Capital Region During April 4-5 By-elections
"Even Gangnam Cannot Be Safe in the Capital Region"
Ruling Party's Gangseo District Mayor Defeat... Lee's April Remarks Revisited

Editor's Note‘Politics on That Day’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

Regarding the ‘10·11’ Seoul Gangseo District Mayor by-election, the politician who received as much attention as the winner Jin Gyo-hoon was former People Power Party (PPP) leader Lee Jun-seok. Before the election, Lee Jun-seok predicted a 18 percentage point gap leading to a PPP defeat, and the actual counting results showed a 17.15 percentage point loss.

The similarity between Lee Jun-seok’s forecast and the actual results increased interest in his prediction. As a politician, he earned the nickname ‘election soothsayer,’ which is a compliment. In fact, several others had also predicted a gap of around 15-20% ahead of the Gangseo District mayoral election.

The reason Lee Jun-seok’s observation received special attention is due to his political position. For others, even if their 15-20% gap predictions ultimately failed, the political risk would be limited.

Former Lee Jun-seok, People Power Party leader. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

However, if a politician who served as the leader of the People Power Party predicted a large-margin defeat for his own party’s candidate and the result turned out differently, it could become a subject of ridicule. Lee Jun-seok’s prediction involved taking on considerable political risk.

Lee Jun-seok did not just guess the election outcome; he derived the 18 percentage point figure by synthesizing the vote shares of the Gangseo District candidates from the last general election and current political variables. This is why the political world pays close attention to his forecasts.

An interesting point is that the ‘election soothsayer’ Lee Jun-seok’s future forecast was already made last April. What was this so-called ‘April prophecy’ about?

It relates to the by-elections held on April 5.

In Nam-gu, Ulsan, the political stronghold of People Power Party leader Kim Gi-hyeon, there was a by-election for the ‘Nam-gu Na’ district council seat. Although it was only a district council election, political interest was unusually high.

Kim Ki-hyun, leader of the People Power Party, is arriving at the party leader's office in the National Assembly on the 13th. On the same day, Kim canceled the scheduled emergency Supreme Council meeting and held individual meetings with the Supreme Council members. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

The ruling party lost in a PPP stronghold. In the Ulsan Nam-gu district council by-election, Democratic Party candidate Choi Deok-jong won with 50.6% of the vote, defeating PPP candidate Shin Sang-hyun, who received 49.4%.

On April 6, Lee Jun-seok posted on social media (SNS), “No matter how small the district council election is, the conservative candidate losing in a 1:1 race in Ulsan Nam-gu is a serious situation,” and explained, “Based on the presidential election, Ulsan Nam-gu (58.43%) is the area with the highest vote share in Ulsan.”

He then said the following:

“If such an unusual situation occurs in PK (the southeastern region), it means even Gangnam in the Seoul metropolitan area cannot be considered safe. Based on the presidential election, Ulsan Nam-gu had a higher vote share than Songpa (56.76%), Yongsan (56.44%), and Seongnam Bundang (55.00%). The rest of the metropolitan constituencies go without saying. The party’s line must be promptly normalized and revitalized.”

On the 11th, when the by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo-gu, Seoul was held, officials were waiting for candidate Kim Tae-woo of the People Power Party at the campaign office in Magok-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Lee Jun-seok paid close attention to the April by-election results in Ulsan Nam-gu, a PPP stronghold, warning that the metropolitan area elections could be precarious. Six months later, the Seoul Gangseo District mayoral by-election was held.

As a result, the People Power Party suffered a crushing defeat in the Gangseo District mayoral by-election, losing by a 17.15 percentage point margin.

The public sentiment sent a warning message to the ruling party through the April by-elections, but the party lost again in the October by-election, indicating that the changes fell short of the public’s expectations. What will the ruling party look like after the Gangseo District mayoral election? The general election is less than six months away. The Gangseo District mayoral election was the last stage to check the current state of public sentiment before the general election.

Lee Jun-seok’s April prophecy is a warning message that remains valid beyond the October by-election and into next April’s general election.

If the ruling party does not show sincere self-reflection and change, it may face an even greater crisis in next year’s general election.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.