[This Week's Industry Highlights] Doosan Robotics Quickly Becomes Leading Robot Stock... Spotlight on Collaborative Robot Growth

No.1 in domestic sales, No.4 globally... Possible turnaround to profit as early as next year
Short-term performance slowdown inevitable in the second half due to increased economic uncertainty

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Doosan Robotics, which was spotlighted as the biggest IPO in the second half of this year, rose to become the 'leader' in the robot industry immediately upon listing. As investment funds poured into the previously dry IPO market, it easily surpassed the market capitalization of Rainbow Robotics, in which Samsung Electronics has invested. This is due to the bright growth prospects of the collaborative robot market, where Doosan Robotics ranks first domestically and fourth globally, driven by global trends such as aging populations and declining working-age populations. Doosan Robotics is expected to turn profitable as early as next year, or by 2025 at the latest, and then embark on a full-scale growth trajectory.

According to the Korea Exchange, on the second day of listing, the 6th, Doosan Robotics' market capitalization reached KRW 3.358 trillion, ranking 89th in the entire KOSPI market. It is the first KOSPI listing among Korea's leading robot companies. Narrowing the scope to robot-related stocks, it ranked first with about KRW 700 billion more than Rainbow Robotics (KRW 2.684 trillion) in the KOSDAQ market. The stock price soared to KRW 67,600 during the trading day on the first day of listing, the 5th, which is 260% higher than the public offering price of KRW 26,000. It also topped individual investors' net buying with KRW 273 billion, surpassing Samsung Electronics. However, the closing price on the first day was KRW 51,400, slightly below the so-called 'Ttang-Sang' (opening price double the public offering price followed by hitting the upper limit), disappointing investors who expected the maximum price ceiling of 400%, known as 'Ttang-Tta-Double.' Nevertheless, considering the unstable market conditions such as the KOSPI's sharp 2% drop due to a surge in U.S. Treasury yields and a strong dollar the previous day, it is also evaluated as a relatively good performance.

Collaborative robots do not perform production activities alone but enhance work efficiency and safety through cooperation between robots and humans. The market is still in its early stages globally and has mainly been developed around industrial robots, but its applications are diversifying, making it a highly expandable field. The annual new installation volume of collaborative robots was 45,000 units last year, accounting for only 9% of the total industrial robot installations. It is expected to grow more than 30% annually until 2030, driven by diverse applications and price competitiveness.

Above all, the biggest advantage of collaborative robots is their cost-effectiveness compared to labor costs. Considering the rising labor costs due to aging populations and shortages of the working-age population, demand for collaborative robots is bound to increase. Even compared to the domestic minimum wage, the price competitiveness of collaborative robots is not inferior. Especially, the collaborative robot market is expected to be actively activated mainly in North America and Europe, where labor costs are high globally. Jaeho Seo, a researcher at DB Financial Investment, said, "As technological advances such as artificial intelligence (AI) and integration with various software diversify applications, growth is likely to accelerate. Structural social changes such as rising labor costs and population decline, increased automation demand after COVID-19, and expansion of collaborative robot lineups by various robot companies are also expected." He added, "The increase in production volume of collaborative robots will lead to a decrease in fixed costs per unit and cost reductions through technological development, creating a virtuous cycle structure that will support steady growth."

Founded in 2015, Doosan Robotics is a robot-specialized company that develops, manufactures, and sells collaborative robots, robot solution packages, and robot platform software. As of last year, it ranked first domestically and fourth globally in sales in the collaborative robot market. The domestic sales ratio is about 32%, and overseas sales about 68%, with the overseas sales ratio continuously expanding, which is a positive factor.

Doosan Robotics' greatest strength lies in its diverse product lineup. It has 13 product lineups, which is significantly more than Universal Robots, the global number one robot company, which has 5. Excluding China, the global robot market share is highest for Universal Robots, a U.S.-Denmark company, at about 36.1%, followed by Japan's FANUC at 14%, and Taiwan's Techman Robot at 6.5%. Although FANUC and Techman Robot have higher market shares than Doosan Robotics, their product lineups are only 5 and 10, respectively.

Notably, Doosan Robotics is currently the only company worldwide producing collaborative robots (H series) with a payload capacity of 20 to 25 kg. It holds an overwhelming first place in the H series collaborative robot market. Based on this, Doosan Robotics recorded an average annual sales growth rate of 46.1% over the past five years (2018?2022), far surpassing competitors FANUC (25.4%) and Techman Robot (5.4%) during the same period.

Doosan Robotics posted sales of KRW 45 billion and an operating loss of KRW 13.2 billion last year. In the first half of this year, sales were KRW 23.7 billion with an operating loss of KRW 9.9 billion. It is expected to record annual sales of KRW 67 billion and an operating loss of KRW 7.9 billion. Although it is still recording losses due to high fixed and selling expenses, considering the rapid growth of the collaborative robot market, securities firms expect profitability to be achieved as early as next year or by 2025 at the latest. Doosan Robotics' own 2030 performance forecast projects sales of KRW 766.3 billion and operating profit of KRW 213.3 billion. Ji-hwan Yang, a researcher at Daishin Securities, explained, "Considering the rapid growth and penetration rate of the collaborative robot market, Doosan Robotics could turn operating profit positive as early as 2024. To expand sales, Doosan Robotics plans to simultaneously expand its product lineup, solution sales, and software sales, and actively pursue partnerships and equity investments with global SI companies."

However, demand for collaborative robots is inevitably affected by the business conditions of upstream industries, making recent external uncertainties a negative factor for Doosan Robotics' stock price. The rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields and ongoing discussions of further rate hikes have intensified risk-averse behavior overall. Additionally, the recent armed conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas has unsettled financial markets. As the robot industry is considered a representative future growth sector, it is highly sensitive to economic conditions. This is why short-term performance slowdown for Doosan Robotics in the second half of this year is seen as inevitable.

Nonetheless, there is virtually no disagreement about the long-term growth prospects of the robot industry. Seung-yoon Yang, a researcher at Eugene Investment & Securities, said, "The history of the collaborative robot market is not long, and there are few listed overseas companies, making meaningful comparisons difficult. However, I positively assess the potential to grow as a meaningful player in the expanding market and the roadmap to achieve this." Seung-doo Na, a researcher at SK Securities, said, "Traditional industrial robots require safety barriers due to their strong and fast movements, but collaborative robots occupy about one person's workspace, enabling safe and delicate movements, ensuring safety. Therefore, their applications are diverse across industrial and non-industrial fields. Considering the increased demand for collaborative robots due to global labor supply imbalances after COVID-19, the timing of profit achievement for Doosan Robotics is likely to be brought forward."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.