After the holidays, it's 'time for diplomacy'... China-Russia, US-China, South Korea-Japan-China consecutive talks

Bilateral Meeting Between China and Russia at Belt and Road Summit
Possible Mention of Ukraine Mediation by China
Prospects for US-China Summit to Explore Relationship Improvement
South Korea, Japan, and China to Meet in Seoul for First Time in 4 Years

Starting from October, when the Chuseok holiday ends, the "time for diplomacy" will be in full swing. China and Russia will meet again after about seven months, coinciding with the Belt and Road Summit to be held in Beijing on the 26th. In November, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting will signal a green light for a US-China bilateral meeting. The trilateral summit among South Korea, Japan, and China, which the South Korean government is pushing to hold within the year, is also expected to take place no later than December.

First, the meeting between the Chinese and Russian leaders is imminent. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in a congratulatory message sent to Chinese President Xi Jinping on the 1st, “I am confident that we will expand our constructive relationship in all areas at the Belt and Road International Forum.”

Strengthening Anti-US Alliance, China’s Role in Mediating the Ukraine War Also Noteworthy

The Belt and Road Initiative is President Xi’s global priority project. It aims to create a vast economic zone by connecting China with Central Asia and Europe via land and sea routes. This is achieved through infrastructure investment and cooperation, such as building roads, railways, ports, and airports in participating countries. Since its announcement in August 2013, early in Xi’s administration, it has been pursued as a core diplomatic strategy. It is regarded as China’s expansion strategy to realize its “great power resurgence.” However, it is in tense opposition to the US Indo-Pacific strategy’s containment of China.

Therefore, this upcoming China-Russia summit may portray an image of solidifying an anti-US alliance externally. Russia, isolated in the international community, may appear to be closely aligned with China following North Korea. However, China’s interests are complex. Since this year, China has declared its intention to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war. China also feels burdened by violations of international norms, such as UN sanctions against North Korea, so the level of statements exchanged regarding North Korea and Ukraine issues will be critical.

US-China Relations Improvement Gains Momentum... Possibility of APEC Summit in November

In November, the possibility of contact between the US and China is emerging. On the 28th of last month (local time), the US State Department announced that Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, met with Sun Weidong, Vice Foreign Minister of China, in Washington DC. Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US State Department, said, “Both sides had frank, in-depth, and constructive consultations on regional issues, including efforts to maintain communication channels.”

This high-level meeting is a continuation of follow-up talks between the US and China following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing in June. The US has been focusing on improving relations with China, sending four minister-level senior officials to China this year. China is also known to be sending its top economic and diplomatic officials to the US to coordinate on US-China issues and summit agendas. Accordingly, there is a high possibility that President Xi Jinping will attend the Asia-Pacific Leaders Summit held in San Francisco in November. The last meeting between the leaders of the US and China was at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, in November last year.

Trilateral Summit Among South Korea, China, and Japan to be Held in Seoul After Over Four Years... Comprehensive Agenda to be Addressed

At the end of November, the trilateral summit among South Korea, Japan, and China is likely to be held for the first time in over four years. The three countries’ deputy foreign ministers, who met last month to coordinate the summit, agreed to hold the summit “at the earliest convenient time” and announced plans to hold a foreign ministers’ meeting “in a couple of months” to prepare for it. The agenda for the trilateral summit is also being formalized. Six cooperation areas have been selected: ▲person-to-person exchanges ▲science and technology cooperation and digital transformation ▲sustainable development and climate change ▲health and aging ▲economic and trade cooperation ▲peace and security.

The three countries pledged to achieve tangible results in practical cooperation areas so that the public can feel the restoration of trilateral cooperation, which has been suspended since December 2019. As the chair country, the South Korean government proposed holding the trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting in Busan in November, and both China and Japan responded positively. Accordingly, there is a possibility that the foreign ministers’ meeting will be held before the decision date for the host country of the World Expo on November 28.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.