[Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club] Is North Korea Capable of Launching the Reconnaissance Satellite Announced for This Month?

Possibility of a Third Attempt Around the Labor Party Founding Day on the 10th

As North Korea continues to declare its intention to possess nuclear weapons to the international community, concerns are rising that it may proceed with the reconnaissance satellite launch it announced for this month. In particular, there is analysis suggesting a high possibility that Russian satellite-related technicians visiting North Korea this month could assist with the satellite launch.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea is reiterating its longstanding position of not abandoning its nuclear weapons. On the 26th of last month (local time), Kim Song, North Korea's ambassador to the United Nations, informed the international community of North Korea's intention to strengthen its self-defense capabilities amid escalating nuclear war risks on the Korean Peninsula. In his speech at the 78th UN General Assembly general debate held at the UN headquarters in New York, Kim stated, "The Korean Peninsula is on the brink of a nuclear war that could break out at any moment," reaffirming North Korea's existing stance of not giving up its nuclear weapons.

For North Korea to possess nuclear weapons, various technologies such as miniaturization of nuclear warheads are necessary, but acquiring the technology for reconnaissance satellite launch vehicles, which have repeatedly failed, is a priority. Therefore, it is expected that Chairman Kim will seek to obtain technology related to reconnaissance satellites and their launch vehicles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which failed in the last two launches, through his visit to Russia.

As many North Korea watchers predict, if North Korea attempts a third reconnaissance satellite launch around the 78th anniversary of the Workers' Party founding on October 10, Russian support will be essential for success this time. Satellite development by North Korea is also a matter that President Putin publicly pledged to assist during the recent North Korea-Russia summit. Accordingly, there is speculation that North Korean officials responsible for satellite development may soon travel to Russia, or Russian technicians may be dispatched to North Korea to transfer related technology.

If Russia's launch vehicle is accepted, North and South Korea will have the same technology satellite
Possibility of leasing Russian satellites rather than technology
Immediate North Korea-Russia tangible results likely in economy rather than satellites

◆ Will Russia's launch vehicle be used?= Experts agree that it is practically difficult to receive Russian technology transfer by this month, but Russian technicians may conduct preliminary inspections or delay the launch timing.

Before the summit with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un at the Vostochny Cosmodrome on the 13th of last month, President Putin was asked whether Russia would assist North Korea's satellite development, to which he replied, "That's why we came here (to the spaceport)." Since the highest-level leaders have openly declared cooperation on satellite development, it is highly likely that North Korea and Russia will swiftly proceed with implementation.

North Korea has two options to receive technology: either upgrade the performance of its existing launch vehicle or receive a new launch vehicle from Russia. Some analyses suggest that North Korea is unlikely to abandon its independently developed 'Chollima-1' launch vehicle, which failed in the military reconnaissance satellite launches on May 31 and August 24. In this case, a third launch within this month is realistically difficult due to time constraints.

Therefore, there is a proposal that Russia assist in the development of 'Chollima-1.' North Korea is believed to have developed the Chollima-1 engine based on the liquid-fueled Paektusan engine used in existing ICBMs such as Hwasong-15. Since the Paektusan engine is originally known to have been modeled after the Russian RD-250 engine, there are various ways Russia could support North Korea's rocket engine development. It is also analyzed that North Korea lacks facilities such as combustion test stands equipped with 'high-altitude chambers' to simulate the operating environment of second and third stage engines, and Russia could provide these advanced testing facilities.

Lee Chun-geun, honorary research fellow at the Science Policy Institute, said, "North Korea developed the Chollima-1 engine based on the liquid-fueled Paektusan engine used in existing ICBMs like Hwasong-15 and is unlikely to give it up easily," adding, "Russia could provide testing facilities or conduct tests on behalf of North Korea in its own country."

Transfer of atmospheric re-entry technology also appears necessary. Kim Yo-jong, vice department director of the North Korean Workers' Party, stated in December last year regarding ICBM atmospheric re-entry technology, "You will soon see," indicating that North Korea would soon conduct an ICBM launch at a normal trajectory angle. This was the first time Kim Yo-jong mentioned that North Korea had secured the final stage of ICBM technology, atmospheric re-entry, and she issued a blatant threat to South Korea and the United States. However, there remains skepticism about whether North Korea has actually secured atmospheric re-entry technology for the warhead necessary to 'complete' the ICBM.

Jang Young-geun, center director at the Korea Institute for National Strategic Studies, said, "It is certain that North Korea will receive satellite-related technology from Russia, but if they change the launch system again, it will take a long time, so they will likely receive only necessary assistance and then launch the satellite again."

If Russia immediately provides the launch vehicle to North Korea, it would be equivalent to possessing the Naroho engine of South Korea. Since it would take a long time for North Korea to receive the technology, the satellite launch timing would also have to be postponed. If North Korea receives launch vehicle technology assistance from Russia, it could use the 'Angara' rocket inspected at the Vostochny Cosmodrome. The Angara rocket shares the first stage and engine with Naroho, South Korea's first space launch vehicle, which succeeded in launching in 2013. The success of Naroho was backed by the Angara rocket, so if this rocket goes to North Korea, it means that North and South Korea would share Russian technology.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Leasing rather than transferring reconnaissance satellite technology= For reconnaissance via satellite, the satellite must be positioned in low Earth orbit, which is technically difficult for North Korea. In particular, there have been questions about North Korea's ability to receive data transmitted from the satellite. The 'quality' of satellite images is a sensitive issue for North Korea. North Korea's satellite body 'Malligyong-1' was recovered by South Korean forces after the first launch failure in May, revealing poor performance. Joint investigations by South Korea and the United States concluded that it "has no military utility as a reconnaissance satellite."

When some experts evaluated the photos of downtown Seoul and Incheon Port, which North Korea claimed were taken by a reconnaissance satellite test product in December last year, as 'poor quality,' Kim Yo-jong issued a statement rebutting, "Who would install an expensive high-resolution camera for a one-time test?" Accordingly, there is discussion about Russia providing satellite bodies, cameras mounted on satellites, and other equipment.

Lee Chun-geun, honorary research fellow at the Science Policy Institute, said, "Russia could consider directly selling or leasing its satellites," adding, "However, ground facilities and other support would be necessary to provide information when the Russian satellite passes over the Korean Peninsula."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Immediate North Korea-Russia results likely in ‘economy’= With Russia officially announcing a high-level delegation's plan to visit North Korea on the 23rd of last month, the close North Korea-Russia relationship, highlighted by Kim Jong Un's 9-night, 10-day visit to Russia, appears to be growing even closer. If President Putin visits North Korea, it would be the first time in 23 years since he visited Pyongyang in July 2000 shortly after assuming the presidency and met then National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong Il. It would also be the first such visit since Kim Jong Un took power at the end of 2011.

Since tangible results must be shown domestically and internationally immediately, Russia is more likely to promise economic support rather than transfer satellite launch vehicle technology, which would violate UN Security Council resolutions.

Currently, North Korea is believed to be experiencing severe economic difficulties due to UN Security Council sanctions related to nuclear and missile development, as well as prolonged 'border closure' measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, finding a breakthrough to resolve this is likely North Korea's most urgent task.

Among North Korea-Russia economic cooperation projects, the resumption of dispatching North Korean workers to Russia is highly likely to be prioritized. This would allow North Korea to earn foreign currency immediately, while Russia could fill its labor shortages. North Korean authorities have effectively lifted border closure measures by operating passenger flights to bring back diplomats, students, and workers who had been staying in China and Russia but were previously not allowed to return due to the COVID-19 situation.

Additionally, North Korean authorities are expected to prepare for expanding logistics exchanges and resuming tourism with Russia.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.