North Korea and Russia uneasy about China, South Korea seizes opportunity... Han Deok-su and Xi Jinping meeting

China Faces US Encirclement Dilemma Amid North Korea-Russia Alliance
South Korea Creates Diplomatic Space to Open Exit
China Begins Considering Strategic Interests of North Korea-China-Russia
Next Month's 'Belt and Road Summit' a Turning Point
Considering First Visit to South Korea in 9 Years Since 2014

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a 26-minute meeting in Hangzhou on the 23rd. This encounter is interpreted as China, which has been reluctant amid the unprecedentedly strong North Korea-Russia alliance, actively expressing its willingness to improve relations with South Korea. It is also seen as South Korea detecting China’s shift away from the ‘North Korea-China-Russia’ triangular alliance, thereby expanding diplomatic space.

This meeting is also unusual in that it was a ‘high-level Korea-China contact’ held just half a month apart. On the 7th, President Yoon Suk-yeol held a bilateral meeting for about 50 minutes with Li Qiang, the second-ranking official in power, in Jakarta, Indonesia. The summit between President Xi and President Yoon last took place at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, in November last year. This can be seen as a response to China’s expression of ‘willingness to communicate,’ as South Korea extended overtures through high-level talks and strategic dialogues. It signifies a consensus on restoring Korea-China relations.

China, 'Having Its Own Troubles'...Strategic Concerns Over the North Korea-China-Russia Triangular Alliance

According to the Prime Minister’s Office on the 23rd, the meeting between Prime Minister Han and President Xi took place in the form of a ‘brief encounter’ from 4:26 PM to 4:52 PM (local time), just before the 19th Asian Games. They met during a gap right before the opening ceremony, which started at 8 PM. At this meeting, President Xi said, “China-Korea relations are close neighbors and inseparable partners in cooperation.” He also expressed willingness to consider a visit to South Korea. Since 2014, during the Park Geun-hye administration, President Xi has not visited South Korea for nine years.

Joo Jae-woo, head of the China Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, said, “Although the remarks themselves were not significantly different from before, it is encouraging that President Xi met directly with Prime Minister Han, not just the head of the Korean delegation, showing respect and responding to South Korea’s efforts to communicate.” He added, “This indicates that China views Korea-China relations very favorably.”

Some interpret this as China’s intention to avoid being lumped together with the ‘North Korea-China-Russia’ alliance by leveraging improved relations with South Korea. The change in China, which has served as the linchpin of the North Korea-China-Russia triangular alliance as North Korea’s patron and Russia’s backer, is surfacing.

On the 23rd, Han Duck-soo, the Prime Minister of South Korea, who visited China to attend the opening ceremony of the Hangzhou Asian Games, held a bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping, President of China, at the West Lake State Guesthouse. Photo by the Prime Minister's Office

China’s Encirclement Tightens...Interpretation That China Has Begun to Compromise Amid Domestic and International Crises

In reality, China’s economy continues to struggle due to defaults and bankruptcies among real estate developers, as well as declines in investment and consumption. All economic growth drivers, including exports and domestic demand, are sluggish. China officially projected a growth rate of about 5% this year, but exports have decreased over the past four months. Due to the real estate market crisis, international credit rating agencies are lowering their economic growth forecasts. Considering isolation from the West, the crisis of supply chain reshuffling triggered by the U.S., and continuing trade with North Korea and Russia, China is calculating that being tied to the North Korea-China-Russia bloc may bring more losses than gains.

Unlike Russia, which is isolated in the international community, China feels burdened by openly violating international norms such as UN sanctions against North Korea. From South Korea’s perspective, with increased security risks on the Korean Peninsula due to the North Korea-Russia closeness, ‘diplomacy toward China’ has become crucial.

There is also analysis that China has begun to compromise amid the U.S.’s ‘encirclement’ strategy. While China will continue its hegemonic competition with the U.S. in terms of ‘semiconductor advancement,’ it has started to consider strategic interests in light of domestic and international crises. On the 22nd (local time), the U.S. Department of Commerce maintained the draft limit of 5% on the expansion of advanced semiconductor production capacity in China for companies supported by the CHIPS Act, continuing pressure on China.

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a summit on November 14, 2022 (local time) in Bali, Indonesia, where the Group of Twenty (G20) summit was held.

The Belt and Road Summit on the 17th of Next Month as a Turning Point...Whether to Respond to a Visit to China

However, it is expected that China will maintain its ties with Russia at least to a minimal extent. China has declared since this year its intention to ‘mediate’ the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war. This is because China and Russia have significant mutual interests in the energy sector. The level of President Xi’s remarks when meeting Russian President Putin at the ‘3rd Belt and Road Summit’ to be held in Beijing on the 17th of next month is drawing attention.

Meanwhile, President Xi has not visited South Korea for nine years since July 2014. President Yoon requested Xi’s visit during last year’s summit, but President Xi countered by proposing Yoon’s visit to China, resulting in a stalemate. Since the Korea-China summit was held in China in December 2019, diplomatic protocol dictates that it is Xi’s turn to visit South Korea.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.