[Asia Report] The ‘Global South’ Gains Practical Benefits Through Strategic Ambiguity

President Yoon Suk-yeol and his wife Kim Keon-hee are taking a commemorative photo with Indonesian President Joko Widodo and his wife at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta on the 8th (local time). Photo by Yonhap News

Since his inauguration in May last year, President Yoon Suk-yeol has frequently met with Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Jokowi first visited South Korea in July last year, and in November, they held a summit at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. They reunited at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, in May this year, commemorated the 50th anniversary of Korea-Indonesia diplomatic relations at the ASEAN summit in Jakarta this month, and met again three days later at the G20 summit in India. This means they have met face-to-face at least five times.

Indonesia, with a population of 270 million, is the fourth most populous country after the United States. Its gross domestic product (GDP) reached $1.3 trillion in 2022, surpassing 80% of South Korea's $1.6 trillion. The economic growth rate in 2022 was 5.3%. As a maritime nation consisting of thousands of islands between the Indian and Pacific Oceans and a country rich in natural resources, Indonesia holds a distinct international status in many respects, often positioning itself opposite South Korea. This has led the two leaders to frequently appear together at international meetings like a package deal.

It is not only Indonesia that is attracting attention. Global companies are focusing on countries in the southern region. Interest is unprecedentedly high not only in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region, including Vietnam and Indonesia, but also in India, a country with a population of 1.4 billion. People flock to related forums, and new books are selling rapidly. The background of this popularity is the soaring geopolitical value of the Global South, including Indonesia and India.

◇ Geopolitical Reassessment = This regional conflict was once collectively referred to as the "Southern countries" issue, economically labeled as "developing countries," and politically called the "Third World" or "non-aligned countries." These were negative terms for regions near the Earth's equator with low industrialization and income levels, experiencing sharp political and economic conflicts. Recently, these expressions have been replaced by the term "Global South." It contrasts with the "Global North," which refers to wealthy countries in the Northern Hemisphere, but its usage has exploded recently.

This includes Africa and South America, but the hottest regions currently are the "India + ASEAN region." These two regions alone have a population of 2 billion. In the past, poverty and economic disparity were the main issues, but now strategic location, abundant population and resources, diplomatic value, and economic growth potential are drawing attention. Scholars see the "Global South" not merely as a broad regional concept but as an evolution of India's diplomatic strategy as a leading Third World country. It is similar to China's global supply chain strategy, the "Belt and Road Initiative." While India cannot win international favor with money and military power like China or the United States, it aims to gain practical benefits through a unique loose alliance and a "feint and real" strategy.

The first reason for the rising value of South Asia is China's rise. The primary topic at recent ASEAN-related meetings has been the South China Sea conflict with China. For China, which traditionally lacked a maritime strategy, military operational control in the South China Sea is almost a prerequisite for becoming a superpower. The nine-dash line (recently the ten-dash line) infringing on ASEAN countries' maritime rights is a product of such anxiety.

China's attitude poses a serious security threat to ASEAN, which is interconnected by the sea. Particularly, maritime ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia have strong grievances. Naturally, they have emerged as indispensable partners for the West, which is devising a containment strategy against China. As confirmed at this ASEAN summit, the diplomatic battle between China and ASEAN is evolving into a heated and complex relationship.

China is conducting tailored negotiations with each ASEAN country regarding the South China Sea issue. By satisfying each country's demands, China aims not to lose either maritime control or allies. Conversely, ASEAN has positioned itself as a community like Europe and is engaging in comprehensive negotiations with China. As a result, ASEAN has yet to deliver a clear "strong punch," partly because pro-China countries like Cambodia and Laos are not actively cooperating. Myanmar and Thailand also maintain lukewarm positions.

Some analysts argue that ASEAN's sluggish stance is a highly calculated move. For example, the United States and the Western world are investing considerable effort in Vietnam, the frontline of the South China Sea conflict. U.S. President Joe Biden visited Hanoi on the 10th and held a summit, upgrading bilateral relations to a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership." U.S. companies are also increasing investments in Vietnam. ASEAN does not seem to dislike the global focus on the South China Sea. The "China threat theory" has become a clear geopolitical marketing point.

◇ Ambiguity and Complexity = The core of the "Global South" strategy is strategic ambiguity. It means not clearly siding with any party, similar to the "Non-Aligned Movement" during the Cold War. India stands at the pinnacle of this movement.

India is the world's largest democracy (with a population of 1.4 billion) and the fifth-largest economy globally, but its per capita income is the lowest among G20 countries. India's recent rise is interpreted as turning its lowest economic power into the greatest potential. Having recently sent a spacecraft to the moon, India has also shown the most remarkable growth in digital and mobile sectors. Today, nearly 1 billion mobile internet users in India contribute to a rapidly growing digital mobile economy. Its population, territory, and English-speaking environment attract global economic interest.

At the same time, there are clear differences in perspectives with the Western mainstream society. Regarding climate change, the Ukraine crisis, and global supply chain issues, which have recently attracted advanced countries' attention, India clearly represents the developing countries' stance. At the G20 summit that concluded on September 11, the Western world expected condemnation of Russia, but the joint declaration at the end only mentioned that "all countries should refrain from threats or use of force to acquire territory." Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed joy, saying, "It has been proven that the Global South does not blindly follow the West." In fact, many southern countries, including India, have maintained neutrality in the Ukraine war, maintaining long-standing friendly relations with Russia in arms systems and oil trade. Former Indonesian Ambassador Lee Sun-jin evaluated, "The Global South's strategy, including ASEAN, is 'never to make enemies,' so it contributes to regional stability and world peace by skillfully balancing between the U.S. and China," adding, "There is much wisdom we should refer to and learn from."

Jung Ho-jae, Researcher at Korea University ASEAN Center

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.