Kim Jong-un's 'Dangerous Visit to Russia'... Suspicions of Arms Deal Seen Through the Delegation

Kim Jong-un Presumed to Arrive in Russia Soon for Summit
From Reconnaissance Satellites to Submarines: Suspicions of a 'Dangerous Deal'
North Korea May Provide Labor in Exchange for Technology Transfer
"Russia Won't Share Core Technologies... Symbolic Military Cooperation"

It is presumed that Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, has arrived in Russia for a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Observers suggest that through this meeting, North Korea aims to advance technology transfers that would accelerate its nuclear and missile development despite international sanctions, while Russia seeks to address shortages of war supplies caused by the prolonged invasion of Ukraine.

On the afternoon of the 10th, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, departs from Pyongyang by special train to visit Russia.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

According to the Korean Central News Agency on the 12th, Chairman Kim departed for Russia on the afternoon of the 10th from Pyongyang aboard a "special train." Later that day, Japan’s private broadcaster TBS-led news network JNN reported, citing Russian regional authorities, that "Kim Jong-un has arrived at Hasan Station, located near the border between North Korea and Russia." If the summit between Chairman Kim and President Putin takes place, it will be the first in four years since the Vladivostok summit in April 2019.

Photos released by the North on the day show that the delegation included Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui and Li Pyong-chol, Vice Chairman of the Party Central Military Commission, ranked first or second in military hierarchy, as well as Pak Jong-chon, head of the Party’s Military Leadership Department. Notably, key figures such as Pak Tae-sung, Party Secretary, Navy Commander Kim Myong-sik, and Jo Chun-ryong, head of the Party’s Munitions Industry Department, are also presumed to be accompanying the visit to Russia, indicating the "military nature" of Chairman Kim’s trip.

Full Mobilization of Military Core... Is Kim Jong-un Attempting a Risky Deal?

On the afternoon of the 10th, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, departs from Pyongyang by special train to visit Russia.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

First, Party Secretary Pak Tae-sung serves as the chairman of the National Emergency Space Science and Technology Committee, established by North Korea to launch "military reconnaissance satellites." Reconnaissance satellites are considered one of the three essential conditions for completing nuclear forces, alongside nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles capable of delivering them. However, despite advancements in nuclear and missile capabilities, North Korea’s reconnaissance ability is evaluated to remain at a "blind" level. Having failed in two attempts to launch reconnaissance satellites earlier this year, North Korea is in urgent need of reconnaissance satellite technology and may seek Russia’s assistance to resolve this issue.

There is also speculation that technology transfer for submarine operations could be part of a "risky deal," which draws attention to the inclusion of Navy Commander Kim Myong-sik in the delegation. North Korea unveiled its tactical nuclear attack submarine "Kim Kun-ok Hero Ship" for the first time on the 8th. Contrary to North Korea’s claim that it has 10 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launch tubes, South Korean military authorities have stated that "it does not appear to be operational." Especially given Chairman Kim Jong-un’s repeated emphasis on the importance of the "navy," there is speculation that joint exercises centered on maritime forces may take place.

In return, North Korea could provide Russia with conventional weapons such as artillery shells and rifles. Russia is suffering from shortages of military supplies due to the prolonged invasion of Ukraine. Jo Chun-ryong, head of the Party’s Munitions Industry Department, is considered a key figure in this matter. He was also closely accompanying Chairman Kim during a recent inspection of military factories.

Interlocking Interests Amid Isolation...Will Russia Hand Over Core Technologies?

'North Korea-Russia Summit Scheduled' Putin Heading to Russia's Far East
Photo by TASS Yonhap News

Analysts view the military cooperation between North Korea and Russia as a convergence of interests: North Korea needs a breakthrough amid prolonged international sanctions, and Russia is confronting the West due to the war. Jung Sung-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Division at the Sejong Institute, said, "Russia is running out of conventional weapons due to the war," and expressed concern that "Russia may provide military technology in exchange for artillery shells from North Korea."

However, there are also opinions that Russia is unlikely to hand over "core technologies" to North Korea. This is because Russia’s purchase of North Korean weapons and North Korea’s provision of labor all constitute serious violations of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. If Western surveillance, which is already monitoring Russia, detects such a "risky deal" between the two countries, Russia’s position as a permanent member of the Security Council could be further destabilized.

Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies pointed out, "Since the Soviet era, Russia has never transferred technology to even friendly countries, and in the case of nuclear-powered submarines, even if technology were transferred, it would take more than 15 years to operationalize." He added, "While old weapons or Soviet-made parts might be possible, the likelihood of transferring advanced technology is slim." He further stated, "This summit should be seen as a symbolic move to strengthen military cooperation between the two countries."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.