[The Editors' Verdict] Preparing the South Korea-U.S. Alliance for Trump's Return

On the 4th (local time), while Americans were enjoying the Labor Day holiday, President Joe Biden attended a union event held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Biden’s trips to Philadelphia, where he proclaims himself as the ‘champion of unions,’ are no longer unfamiliar. This is because Philadelphia is a key battleground that must be secured for next year’s presidential election victory. Biden’s candidacy for next year’s election is a foregone conclusion. He has no competitors within his party. Most potential contenders are focusing on laying the groundwork for the 2028 election. Although he should expect to win based on the incumbent premium, Biden’s chances are currently at ‘zero hour.’

The resilience of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been indicted on various scandals, is remarkable. Trump is also distancing himself from Republican rivals as he targets next year’s presidential election. The indictments against Trump have instead led to a rallying of his support base. U.S. media outlets are daily treating a Biden-Trump showdown as a given and conducting hypothetical matchup polls. The results are neck and neck. It is a situation where no one can predict who will win. This is nothing less than a preview of the second round of the 2020 election, which ended in chaos.

With about a year left until the election, it is difficult for the Biden administration to produce achievements that could change the current situation. This means that policies like the Semiconductor Act and the Inflation Reduction Act are unlikely to be followed by more. Key figures in the Biden administration are gradually wrapping up their duties and returning to election mode. A representative example is the departure of Kurt Campbell, the White House Indo-Pacific Coordinator who oversaw the major Asia policy, and Wendy Sherman, the Deputy Secretary of State. Sherman, who was once pro-Japan and faced backlash from South Korean politicians across party lines, retired last June, but her policy influence on the South Korea-U.S.-Japan relationship was significant, according to U.S. diplomatic circles. Recently, rumors have been spreading in Washington that Campbell, known as the ‘Asia czar’ who led China policy, will also soon leave the White House. It is said to be a concession for his wife, Lael Brainard, who joined the White House as Chair of the National Economic Council.

If Trump regains the White House, rapid changes will be inevitable not only in the U.S. economy and politics but also in international affairs. Trump is expected to perform a spectacle of signing executive orders to overturn Biden administration policies, just as he did on his first day in office in 2017. Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a June interview with The New York Times that the greatest threat to global security is the United States. This was a clear warning about Trump’s return. Haass, known as the ‘master of American diplomacy,’ foresees that the various changes the U.S. will bring upon itself will become the eye of a storm shaking not only itself but also global security and the economy.

Haass’s diagnosis carries significant implications for us as well. If we do not prepare early, the repercussions could be greater. In the South Korea-U.S. alliance, the relationship between South Korea and the United States is the most important axis for national security and prosperity. If there are warnings that this axis could change, preparations must be made in advance. Since government-level contact is difficult, it is also necessary to take action at the party level. This is why it is important to maintain relations with the U.S. Republican Party, which is currently the opposition.

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe even flew to the U.S. to meet Trump, who was then the president-elect. There is no need to go to extremes, but it should not be too late either.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.