[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Satellite Launch Retry... Timing and Technology?

North Korea Notifies Japan of Satellite Launch from 24th to 31st
Launch Site Affected by Second Monsoon... Launch Possible Next Week
"Poor Technology"... 75th Anniversary of Regime Founding

North Korea has notified Japan that it will launch a satellite between 0:00 on the 24th and midnight on the 31st. Since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted a resolution condemning North Korea's missile launches last May, North Korea declared that it would no longer notify international organizations, so it appears that the notification was made only to Japan.

According to foreign media on the 22nd, North Korea informed the Japan Coast Guard early that day of plans to establish three maritime danger zones related to the satellite launch. Two zones are in the southwestern Yellow Sea off North Korea, and one is in the Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines, all outside Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). These zones are similar to the orbit used when North Korea launched a military reconnaissance satellite last May.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The timing of the military satellite launch is expected to be influenced by weather conditions. Heavy rain is forecast from that day in the border areas of North Korea's Hwanghae Province. The launch site in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, where the military reconnaissance satellite is expected to be launched, is also forecast to experience heavy rain, leading to speculation that the launch may be difficult this week.

However, contrary to expectations, there is also a possibility that North Korea could proceed with the satellite launch just one day after the notification. Previously, on May 29, North Korea notified the IMO of plans to launch a satellite between 0:00 on May 31 and 0:00 on June 11, and on the first day, May 31, it launched the first military reconnaissance satellite, 'Manrikyung-1,' aboard the satellite carrier rocket 'Chollima-1' from the Dongchang-ri launch site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province.

Military authorities assess that since North Korea failed in its military reconnaissance satellite launch last May, it likely has not been able to improve its technology in the three months since. North Korea launched the space launch vehicle Chollima-1 carrying Manrikyung-1 from Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, but the vehicle failed to ignite the second stage after the first stage separation and crashed into the sea about 200 km west of Eocheongdo, Gunsan, Jeonbuk Province.

North Korea also cited propulsion system and fuel issues as the causes of the Chollima-1 launch failure. To resolve these, it must identify the exact cause, develop improvements, and conduct test evaluations, which requires considerable time. It is also expected that satellite technology has not advanced. Military authorities analyzed debris recovered last month and concluded that the satellite is unlikely to function effectively as a military reconnaissance satellite.

Nevertheless, North Korea's preparation for a military reconnaissance satellite relaunch within three months appears to be aimed at showcasing achievements ahead of the 75th anniversary of the regime's founding on the 9th of next month. North Korea has previously announced the regime founding day as a 'grand festival,' and it is analyzed that through the reconnaissance satellite launch, it intends to continue the celebratory atmosphere following last month's Victory Day (the 70th anniversary of the Korean War armistice) and strengthen internal unity. Ahead of last month's Victory Day, North Korea conducted a provocation with the solid-fuel propelled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-18.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.