Samsung and Hynix to Divide Next Year's HBM Market... Rising Expectations for HBM3E

Next Year HBM Market Share at 47-49% Each
HBM3 Share Expands to 60%, Driving Revenue Growth
Expect Nvidia GH200 with HBM3E Supply

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to compete by dividing the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market with similar market shares next year. As HBM3 emerges as the main product for next year, there is also an expectation that both companies can increase their revenue streams with the follow-up product HBM3E, boosted by the Nvidia effect.

On the 9th, market research firm TrendForce forecasted that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will each hold a market share of 47-49% in the HBM market next year. Following their prediction that each company could hold a 46-49% share this year, they anticipated that both companies will maintain similar shares and compete in the market next year as well.

Previously, TrendForce expected SK Hynix to hold a 53% share and Samsung Electronics a 38% share in this year’s HBM market. However, TrendForce recently revised its forecast, seeing Samsung Electronics narrowing the gap by supplying HBM products to cloud service providers (CSPs) this year.

2023~2024 HBM Market Share Forecast /
[Image provided by TrendForce]

HBM is a next-generation high-performance, high-capacity memory that stacks multiple DRAM chips vertically to enhance data processing capabilities. It has recently gained attention alongside graphics processing units (GPUs) amid the spread of generative AI. Although it is more than six times more expensive than regular DRAM, demand exceeds supply in the market, making it a cash cow (source of profit) for the memory industry.

HBM3, the latest 4th generation product, is expected to become mainstream in the HBM market next year. TrendForce projected that the share of HBM3 in total HBM demand could jump from 39% this year to 60% next year. Due to the high average selling price (ASP) of HBM3, it is also expected that HBM sales will significantly increase along with demand growth next year.

Market expectations for HBM3E, the next generation after HBM3, are also rising. On the 8th (local time), Nvidia unveiled the super GPU 'GH200' at SIGGRAPH 2023, the world’s largest computer graphics conference held in Los Angeles, USA. The GH200 is optimized for generative AI and high-performance computing tasks and is equipped with HBM3E, scheduled for mass production in the second quarter of next year.

2023~2024 HBM Product Share Forecast /
[Image provided by TrendForce]

The semiconductor industry expects Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to supply the HBM3E included in this product. Samsung Electronics has announced plans to introduce the HBM3P product, corresponding to HBM3E, in the second half of this year. SK Hynix also aims to mass-produce HBM3E in the first half of next year. Although US-based Micron recently entered HBM3E development, as a latecomer, it is unlikely to benefit immediately.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are focusing on expanding production capacity (capability) as HBM demand increases. Samsung Electronics plans to more than double its HBM capacity next year. SK Hynix has also announced that expanding HBM mass production will be a priority in its investments next year.

Plans for HBM4, the 6th generation product following HBM3E, are also being concretized. Samsung Electronics revealed during its Q2 conference call last month that it is developing technology to eliminate the space between stacked chips to overcome thickness constraints of HBM4. SK Hynix, in its Q2 conference call the same month, forecasted that HBM4 commercialization could be achieved by 2026.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.