[Insight & Opinion] Serious North-South Population Gap: Need to Consider Support for Quality Improvement

The entire country is talking about the population crisis caused by ultra-low birth rates. There are frequent comparisons with other countries' population issues and cases of overcoming population crises. However, we have little interest in or knowledge about the population of North Korea, where even the concept of compatriots has become vague.

According to the CIA World Factbook published by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, as of 2022, North Korea's total population is estimated at 26.07 million (total fertility rate of 1.79), with about 10.6% of the population aged 65 or older. North Korea has also entered a low birthrate trend and is on the verge of moving beyond an "aging society" to an "aged society." The speed of North Korea's low birthrate and aging is considered unusually rapid for a low-income country.

The North Korean government is implementing various pro-natal policies to increase the birthrate, such as prioritizing housing allocation to families with multiple children and significantly extending maternity leave. To foster a birth-friendly social atmosphere, mothers who give birth to multiple children are awarded the title of "Maternal Hero," and mothers and babies of triplets receive silver medals and gold rings, respectively. In North Korea, where labor is highly valued, the decline in the workforce due to low birthrates and aging could shake the foundation of the North Korean economy. In particular, the reduction in military service resources is expected to make it difficult to maintain the current military service system and military structure.

A much more serious problem than the quantitative aspect of North Korea's population is the qualitative deterioration of the population. Population quality can be divided into software aspects, including individual education level, skill, creativity, labor productivity, and civic consciousness, and hardware aspects, including individual physique, health and nutritional status, and disease burden.

Even considering only the hardware aspects, without the software aspects, the quality of North Korea's population is at a pitiful level compared to South Korea, to the extent that it is difficult to call them compatriots. According to data from the Korea International Health and Medical Foundation, the average height of North Korean adult males is 158 cm, more than 15 cm shorter than the average height of South Korean adult males at 173.3 cm. North Korea's average weight is also known to be more than 10 kg less compared to South Korea.

According to a recent survey by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, the age-standardized mortality rate in North Korea was more than twice that of South Korea. In particular, the mortality rate of children under five years old was about eight times higher than in South Korea, and the difference in child mortality rates significantly affected the life expectancy gap. North Korea's disease burden was also found to be about 1.7 times higher than South Korea's, with the disease burden for infectious diseases 2.83 times higher and for non-infectious diseases 1.68 times higher than in South Korea.

The 70-year history of the division of the Korean Peninsula has brought about disparities between the North and South in many aspects. Among them, the quality gap in the population between North and South Korea has widened as much as the economic gap. Currently, North Korea's population is about half that of South Korea, but considering the quality of the population, it can be said to be much smaller. If the qualitative deterioration of North Korea's population continues, it will be difficult to properly fulfill the roles required as human resources or social members for a unified Korea. Even if the current division continues, we must not just watch the qualitative deterioration of North Korea's population from a humanitarian perspective. The direct and indirect factors determining the hardware quality of the population are food supply status and healthcare level. A new Minister of Unification has recently been appointed. The Ministry of Unification should consider supporting efforts to improve the quality of North Korea's population even now.

Seoyongseok, Professor at KAIST Graduate School of Future Strategy

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.