[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Did North Korea Target US Nuclear Submarine?

Ballistic Missile Range Matches Distance to Busan
Demonstrates Surprise Strike on US Strategic Assets via Maneuvering Trajectory

North Korea is reacting sensitively to the United States' strategic weapons. The surprise launch of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) in the early hours of the 19th is interpreted as a 'tailored' show of force aimed at the US strategic nuclear submarine (SSBN) docked in Busan.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles from the Sunan area near Pyongyang between 3:30 a.m. and 3:46 a.m. that day. The range of the ballistic missiles launched by North Korea is about 550 km. This closely matches the straight-line distance from Sunan, North Korea, the launch site, to Busan (554 km according to Google Maps). This has led to analysis that North Korea was demonstrating its capability to launch a surprise strike on the US Ohio-class strategic nuclear submarine 'USS Kentucky' (SSBN-737), which had docked in Busan the previous day. The docking of an SSBN capable of carrying nuclear missiles in South Korea is the first in 42 years since the visit of the Robert E. Lee (SSBN 601) in March 1981.

In the past, North Korea has conducted shows of force by launching short-range ballistic missiles with ranges corresponding to the distance to the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) base in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, or the US military base in Pyeongtaek whenever there was an occasion.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, analyzed, "Considering the flight distance, it is highly likely that the SSBN docked in Busan was targeted," adding, "By striking during the vulnerable early morning hours, North Korea aims not only to tire out our military but also society, and internally to show that the military is responding."

North Korea has been sensitive to the deployment of US strategic assets, especially the plan for SSBN visits to South Korea, which pose a significant threat to them.

Kim Yo-jong, Vice Director of the Workers' Party of Korea, mentioned the US SSBN docking plan in a statement on the 14th, warning, "The consequences for the US if it provokes us will never be light," and "very ominous things await the US." She also cautioned, "Along with increased 'visibility' of strategic asset deployments, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's responsive actions and scope may become more unrestrained."

This was a warning shown through action in line with the SSBN's visit to South Korea. North Korea's ballistic missile launch also appears to have been mindful of the first Korea-US NCG meeting held in Seoul the previous day. The NCG is a consultative body where South Korea and the US discuss strengthening extended deterrence cooperation against North Korea, and North Korea has opposed the NCG agreed upon at the Korea-US summit in April.

In a statement on the 17th, Kim Yo-jong criticized the Korea-US extended deterrence, saying, "The more the US strengthens the extended deterrence system and expands the military alliance system, the further it pushes us away from the negotiation table they desire."

North Korea's recent short-range ballistic missile launch may also be a test of the performance of a maneuverable trajectory missile aimed at South Korea. Considering the range and peak altitude, the missile is likely the KN-23, known as the 'North Korean version of Iskander,' or the KN-24, referred to as the 'North Korean version of ATACMS.' Japanese Defense Minister Hamada Yasukazu explained that the maximum altitude of the two ballistic missiles launched by North Korea was 50 km and stated, "There is a possibility they flew on a maneuverable trajectory."

Typically, the maximum altitude of a short-range ballistic missile is about one-quarter of its range, so the peak altitude of the missiles launched by North Korea this time is relatively low. Missiles flying at low altitudes on maneuverable trajectories are difficult to intercept. North Korea demonstrated its capability to strike the US mainland with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM, Hwasong-18) test launch on the 12th with a peak altitude exceeding 6,000 km, and on this day, it showcased its capability for surprise attacks against the South.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.